06 November 2019 William May
A PMI surprise, a Fed rate cut, and trade optimism failed to buoy commodity markets
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05 November 2019 Ludovico Carlino Ege Seckin Columb Strack
Baghdadi's death unlikely to significantly reduce capabilities of Islamic State-aligned localized jihadist factions in Syria and Iraq
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04 November 2019 Jordan Anderson Jihane Boudiaf Jack A. Kennedy
Ethiopia, Egypt, Sudan likely to resume talks over Nile dam dispute; escalation to military action highly unlikely
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01 November 2019 Brian Lawson
Debt markets eased only modestly after the first-round Peronist victory in Argentina’s elections but Lebanon is attracting growing adverse focus....
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01 November 2019 Dijedon Imeri
Umbria regional elections to bolster Italy’s Lega-led opposition and undermine cohesion of national government
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30 October 2019 Thomas McCartin
Markets have taken on a bearish view of the near future due to trade policy uncertainty.
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28 October 2019 David Deull
We are forecasting Americans to spend a total of $2.7 billion on Halloween candy in 2019, the most yet
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28 October 2019 Kathleen Navin, CBE Ben Herzon, Ph.D.
According to our Monthly GDP Index, monthly GDP rose 0.3% in September
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28 October 2019 Blanka Kolenikova
Hungarian opposition's municipal election gains bolster hopes for 2022 general poll, but Fidesz government remains stable
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25 October 2019 Brian Lawson
While Barbados appears to have reached agreement with international creditors, Lebanese yields indicate increasing growing debt-sustainability...
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25 October 2019 Sara L. Johnson, CBE Nariman Behravesh, Ph.D.
The October Global Economic Forecast Flash from Chief Economist Nariman Behravesh and Sara Johnson, Executive Director, Global Economics
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24 October 2019 Chris Suckling, Ph.D.
EU proposals to establish development bank targeting sub-Saharan Africa likely to advance slowly given significant disagreements
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23 October 2019 William May
The on-going slow-down in Chinese industrial activity continues to check raw material prices
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23 October 2019 Sharon Fisher
While demographic challenges are daunting, some countries are better positioned than others to live with shrinking populations.
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21 October 2019 Rajiv Biswas
Rajiv Biswas, Asia Pacific Chief Economist at S&P Global, provides his comments on BOK’s decision to cut the policy rate
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21 October 2019 Brian Lawson
A post-crisis record CMBS sale, the first sub-1% corporate perpetual, and a large Italian project bond all indicate healthy risk appetite
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11 October 2019 Brian Lawson
Italian power firm Enel will stop issuing Green Bonds, in favor of sustainable debt, while Sweden and Italy are preparing Green Bond debuts.
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11 October 2019 Diego Moya-Ocampos, LLB
Peruvian president's move to constitutionally shut down Congress likely to trigger political standoff, delaying investments and projects
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10 October 2019 Carla Selman
Chilean Supreme Court order to re-assess mining project signals legal uncertainties and likely delays for large-scale developments
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10 October 2019 William Farmer
Kenya's proposed budget cut likely to target public-sector wage bill, increasing likelihood of strikes
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07 October 2019 Brian Lawson
Highlights this week include Greek corporate issuance and record-low yields for auctions of five and ten-year Italian government debt.
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02 October 2019 William May
Energy prices retrace lower whilst trade issues and politics cast a long shadow of uncertainty
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02 October 2019 William May
Energy prices retrace lower whilst trade issues and politics cast a long shadow of uncertainty
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02 October 2019 Venla Sipilä-Rosen
Having given up earlier plans to issue a Eurobond this year Belarus remains financially fragile.
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27 September 2019 Brian Lawson
Emerging market sovereign supply has revived strongly with sovereign issuance by South Africa, Abu Dhabi, Bahrain, Ecuador and Uruguay this week....
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26 September 2019 Kathleen Navin, CBE Ben Herzon, Ph.D.
According to our Monthly GDP Index, monthly GDP rose 0.3% in August.
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26 September 2019 Arthur Dhont
Constitutional Court ruling denies province-wide anti-mining referendum in Azuay, Ecuador, reducing likelihood of mining prohibition
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25 September 2019 William May
A second Fed rate cut supports growth while oil volatility hits commodity prices
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24 September 2019 Jack A. Kennedy
Inconclusive Israeli parliamentary election increases likelihood of unity government being formed; shifts in security policy unlikely
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20 September 2019 Brian Lawson
Following last week’s ECB easing, European markets have shown strong demand, absorbing an impressive corporate and financial-sector calendar....
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18 September 2019 William May
Easing trade tensions and policy stimulus in Europe lifts prices
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17 September 2019 Chris Suckling, Ph.D. Alisa Strobel
Ethiopia's new economic program to strengthen investor protections but foreign-exchange scarcity will persist, limiting investment inflows.
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17 September 2019 Timo Klein
Understanding the factors that have likely led to a technical recession in Germany around mid-2019 is key to assessing the outlook in the months...
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13 September 2019 Ken Wattret
Ken Wattret, Chief European Economist, provides his initial thoughts on economic outlook following the European Central Bank meeting
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13 September 2019 Arlene Kish
The Bank believes that “the current degree of monetary policy stimulus remains appropriate.”
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13 September 2019 William May
A flurry of good news eases tensions but commodity prices resist the risk-on mood
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13 September 2019 Brian Lawson
Berkshire Hathaway sold a record JPY430 billion global yen issue: 2019 Samurai supply already has surpassed the prior annual peak.
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12 September 2019 Paula Diosquez-Rice Carla Selman Brian Lawson
Spend 30 minutes with our economics and country risk experts as we look at what's unfolding in Argentina.
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12 September 2019 Nariman Behravesh, Ph.D.
A look at the global economic outlook from our Chief Economist, Nariman Behravesh
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11 September 2019 James Bohnaker David Deull
Tight labor markets are continuing to boost wages across income groups, while consumer price inflation has moderated relative to 2018
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11 September 2019
Jamaica’s economic management has improved greatly during the three-year Stand-by Arrangement (SBA) with the International Monetary Fund, which...
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11 September 2019 Amanda Eglinton
LME nickel price will move moderately lower over the near term once the short covering is completed
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06 September 2019 Brian Lawson
Markets have been highly active after Labor Day: a record 21 US high grade deals were launched on 3 September, bolstered by poor US PMI data....
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06 September 2019 Carlos Caicedo
Brazilian Senate's finalisation of pension reform with slight modifications is very likely, implementation to help reduce fiscal deficit
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05 September 2019 Theo Acheampong, Ph.D.
New Nigerian cabinet's composition indicates government unlikely to reduce power-sector liquidity shortages and energy industry corruption
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04 September 2019 Michael Ryan
Risk to the corporate debt market is not systemic and remains contained when examined in aggregate, with concerns limited to certain sub-industries...
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04 September 2019 William May
Trade tensions ease but commodities continue to struggle
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03 September 2019 Brian Lawson
Argentina plans “voluntary reprofiling” of its international debt including IMF borrowings and enforced payment delay on domestic obligations...
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29 August 2019 Kathleen Navin, CBE Ben Herzon, Ph.D.
According to our Monthly GDP Index, monthly GDP rose 0.4% in July.
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28 August 2019 William May
Tariff hikes again lower expectations for demand
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23 August 2019 Brian Lawson
This week’s most notable development was Germany’s undersubscribed 30-year EUR2 billion Bund auction: EUR824 million was sold at -0.11%.
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21 August 2019 William May
Uncertainty and fear of slowing aggregate demand send prices down again
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19 August 2019
Ethiopia's proposed off-grid electricity tariff reform and predictable network expansion plans likely to increase solar power investment
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16 August 2019 Kari Pries, Ph.D.
Guatemala’s next president elected on pro-business platform, policy implementation likely to face delays in opposition-led Congress
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16 August 2019 Brian Lawson
Argentine securities faced exceptional volatility after its Primary elections indicated a first-round victory for the Peronist opposition.
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15 August 2019 Carla Selman
Opposition wins Argentine primaries making re-election of pro-business president highly unlikely, risk of state interventionism increases
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14 August 2019 William May
Commodity prices retreat, broadly led by an overdue correction in Iron ore
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12 August 2019 Karl Kuykendall
Atlanta, Dallas, Jacksonville, Nashville, Phoenix and Raleigh strike the right note with business costs/employment growth
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09 August 2019 Brian Lawson
Negative-yielding debt grew USD1 trillion in two days after the US expanded trade sanctions against China
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09 August 2019 Sian Jones Rajiv Biswas Joseph Hayes Chris Williamson Bernard Aw
Week Ahead Economic Preview
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07 August 2019 Nariman Behravesh, Ph.D.
Nariman Behravesh’s analysis of the devaluation of the renminbi and economic impact
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07 August 2019 William May
The prospect of a broader and more prolonged US-China trade issues unsettles markets.
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06 August 2019
Central government to oversee Indian Kashmir's security following special autonomy abrogation, increasing likelihood of cross-border skirmishes...
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06 August 2019 Chris Suckling, Ph.D.
Modelling non-damage business interruption caused by terrorism attacks
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02 August 2019 Brian Lawson
More outstanding debt, especially in Euros, now provides negative returns. Worldline’s new convertible sale set a record of -0.96%.
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02 August 2019 Columb Strack
Fuel shortages resulting from Western sanctions on Syrian government likely indirectly benefit Al-Qaeda-linked jihadists in Idlib province
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02 August 2019 Diego Iscaro
There are indications that labor market conditions in France are tighter than suggested by the standard unemployment rate
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01 August 2019 Carla Selman
IED attacks highlight new targets in Chile’s capital, including companies’ assets and executives, hastening passage of anti-terrorism law
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01 August 2019 Ken Matheny, Ph.D.
Analysis from our US economics team on the July 31 FOMC rate decision and market reaction
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31 July 2019 William May
Bearish sentiment returns on weak economic data
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31 July 2019 Arthur Dhont
2020 budget proposal indicates changing Colombian government priorities; cuts planned in agriculture, energy and mining, transport.
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29 July 2019 Brian Lawson
Despite pending key central bank meetings, Panama, Mexico, YPF Luz and various Italian borrowers benefited from receptive conditions
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29 July 2019 Kathleen Navin, CBE Ben Herzon, Ph.D.
According to our Monthly GDP Index, monthly GDP rose 0.3% in June.
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29 July 2019 William May
No real direction in materials prices despite dovish tones from the Fed
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19 July 2019 Jihane Boudiaf
Sudanese coup attempt unlikely to have been at advanced stage, but likely stalling transition negotiations motivate protests
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19 July 2019 Brian Lawson
AB Inbev withdrew the USD9.8 billion sale of its Asian unit, citing “market conditions”, despite US stock indices reaching all-time highs.
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18 July 2019 Langelihle Malimela
Reappointment of South African central bank governor significantly lowers risk of nationalization and mandate revision
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17 July 2019
Mexican government's renegotiation of gas pipeline contracts highlights broader decline in legal certainty across multiple sectors
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17 July 2019 William May
Prices retreat fractionally as markets enter a holding pattern in anticipation of the Fed’s next move.
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16 July 2019 Ken Wattret
Deflation worries would return if the economy were hit by a major adverse shock.
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15 July 2019 Alisa Strobel
Increase in spending as part of the new budget requires efforts to increase tax revenue as last year's tax revenue performance was below target....
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15 July 2019 Diego Moya-Ocampos, LLB Chris Suckling, Ph.D. Alexia Ash
Case study on how to value country risks in Mozambique and Peru
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12 July 2019 William Farmer
Sudanese leader seeks union with South Sudan, probably to increase revenue share from natural resources
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12 July 2019 Brian Lawson
Turkey’s central bank governor was fired abruptly while Mexico’s Finance Minister resigned, publicly criticizing the AMLO administration.
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11 July 2019 Petya Barzilska Jan Gerhard
Disagreement between the Council and Parliament over the nomination of new EU leaders indicates an increased likelihood of inter-institutional...
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10 July 2019 Deepa Kumar
Indian budget focuses on tariff support for domestic manufacturing: wider economic liberalization in India likely to proceed gradually
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10 July 2019 William May
Iron ore hits another 5-year high whilst US ethylene surges.
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03 July 2019 Dijedon Imeri
New center-left Danish government to focus on increased social spending and cutting greenhouse gas emissions
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03 July 2019 Brian Lawson
European bond markets have reached new record lows, while tighter EM spreads have encouraged Turkey and Argentine corporates to issue
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03 July 2019 William May
Easing tensions between US-China counter fears of economic weakness for now
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03 July 2019 Ludovico Carlino Ege Seckin
Severe aviation and marine risks in western Libya as LNA threatens retaliation for Turkish support to GNA.
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28 June 2019 Brian Lawson
Emerging market and other higher-risk debt supply has continued unabated, including sales by YPF and subordinated Greek bank debt.
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27 June 2019 Ludovico Carlino
Houthi threat to target international shipping indicates growing marine risks in the southern Yemeni Red Sea
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26 June 2019 Kathleen Navin, CBE Ben Herzon, Ph.D.
Monthly US GDP Index Rose 0.2% in May 2019
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26 June 2019 William May
Geopolitics, supply issues and buoyed sentiment outweigh growth fears to lift commodity prices.
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26 June 2019 Langelihle Malimela
Expulsion of senior ruling party figures elevates coup risk in Lesotho
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25 June 2019 Carla Selman
Haitian president’s mention in court corruption report raises ousting chances, power vacuum over coming months highly likely
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24 June 2019 Nariman Behravesh, Ph.D.
Our Chief Economist, Nariman Behravesh, looks at whats driving the current economic expansion in the US
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21 June 2019 Martin Roberts
Armed robbery risk rises in Casamance region of Senegal as peace negotiations with militant factions stall
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20 June 2019 Petya Barzilska Dijedon Imeri
EU's further postponement of accession negotiations with Albania, North Macedonia undermines judiciary, governance reforms, Western Balkans stability...
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19 June 2019 Brian Lawson
While this week’s supply has abated after last week’s rush, European bond markets have rallied sharply to new historic lows
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19 June 2019 William May
Large moves in iron ore, lumber and other key commodities turned commodity prices up last week.
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14 June 2019 William Farmer
If secessionists' responsibility claim for Cameroonian refinery fire is legitimate, it would represent notable capability increase
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14 June 2019 Brian Lawson
Five sovereign borrowers - Croatia, Indonesia, Italy, Lithuania and Spain - have issued this week with Peru, Serbia and Ukraine pending.
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14 June 2019 Jan Gerhard
Delay to new framework agreement on Swiss-EU relations beyond October federal elections would risk causing disruption to trade.
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13 June 2019
Further cancellation of official meeting between two Koreas indicates even leadership-level summits unlikely to reduce war risks.
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12 June 2019 William May
Large oil inventory gain reinforces oversupply concerns in markets already suffering from poor demand outlook.
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11 June 2019 Thea Fourie Langelihle Malimela Brian Lawson
Spend 30 minutes with our analysts to understand the political disagreement over RBSA's role and adverse economic developments
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10 June 2019 Thomas McCartin
New tariff threat on Mexican imports hurt the chance for the USMCA’s ratification.
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10 June 2019 Chris Williamson
Global economic growth slips to three year low amid gloomier outlook
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07 June 2019 Ege Seckin
Turkish military operation in Iraq's Kurdish region against PKK unlikely to affect nearby cities or oil assets.
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07 June 2019 Brian Lawson
Despite ongoing market volatility, plans for equity sales are reviving involving at least six significant transactions.
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06 June 2019 Carla Selman
Chilean government prepares national lithium policy, likely easing conditions for investment; opposition’s nationalization demands to delay implementation....
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06 June 2019 Theo Acheampong, Ph.D. Natznet Tesfay, B.A., M.Sc. Martin Roberts Jordan Anderson Chris Suckling, Ph.D. Anna Boyd
Local content, revenue mobilization and anti-corruption will continue to drive transitions and contract risk in Africa in the next 2 years.
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05 June 2019 William Farmer
Kenya's escalation of boundary dispute with Somalia increases likelihood of refugee returnees and travel disruption.
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03 June 2019 Ken Matheny, Ph.D.
We now expect the next adjustment to the Fed interest rate policy will occur mid-2020, later than our previous forecast of late-2019.
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03 June 2019 Brian Lawson
Zambian bond yields spiked late last week to a 20 percent spread over US Treasuries, double their margin in early 2019.
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31 May 2019 Jan Gerhard
EU elections alter political power dynamics at expense of center-right and center-left, increasing dependency on varying coalitions.
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31 May 2019 Brian Lawson
During May, equity markets have reversed while bond risk spreads have widened.
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30 May 2019 Ling-Wei Chung
Easing inflationary expectations and slower economic activities suggest the beginning of the Philippines’ monetary easing cycle.
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30 May 2019 Kathleen Navin, CBE Ben Herzon, Ph.D.
According to our Monthly GDP Index, monthly GDP rose 0.2% in April.
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30 May 2019 Deepa Kumar
Majority win for Indian PM to permit strong central government, growth-boosting measures and flagship schemes to be prioritized.
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29 May 2019 William May
Inventories and demand concerns resulted in Brent's worst week in 2019
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28 May 2019 Brian Lawson
Six major green bond sales and five emerging market sovereign issues confirm continued risk appetite.
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28 May 2019 Nariman Behravesh, Ph.D.
The risk from government and nonfinancial corporate debt remains modest, however, if the global economy falters, or interest rates rise significantly...
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24 May 2019 Andrew Birch
The lira is on the precipice of a crisis, undermined by falling reserves and declining institutional integrity.
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24 May 2019 Hanna Luchnikava-Schorsch Asad Ali
Pakistan secures additional financing from the IMF but risks or program slippages and loan disbursement delays are significant.
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23 May 2019 William Farmer
Protectionists likely to stymie Nigeria's implementation of African Continental Free Trade Agreement even if government signs up
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22 May 2019 Asad Ali
Change of Sri Lankan president likely in December 2019 election given adverse fallout from Easter attacks.
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22 May 2019 Carla Selman
Announced Kirchnerist ticket for Argentina’s elections appeals to moderate Peronists; divisions and rearrangement in ruling coalition likely....
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21 May 2019 Alex Barnes
Incumbent coalition's surprise victory in Australian election increases likelihood of SME tax cuts and new mining licenses.
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21 May 2019 Sara L. Johnson, CBE Nariman Behravesh, Ph.D.
Growing political and policy threats mean any rebound in global growth could be ephemeral.
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17 May 2019 Rafael Amiel, Ph.D. Carlos Caicedo Brian Lawson
Spend 30 minutes with our analysts to understand whats happening in the three largest economies in Latin America
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16 May 2019 Jordan Anderson
Ugandan opposition co-operation agreement increases risk of disruptive protests, indicates growing likelihood of contested election in 2021.
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16 May 2019 Brian Lawson
Emerging market debt remaining receptive; market sentiment to be tested by US-China trade dispute and soft initial Uber share price performance...
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15 May 2019 William May
Breakdown of trade negotiations pours cold water on commodity prices.
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15 May 2019 Shane Norton
We expect travel to rise by 1.5 million from last year as 42.8 million travelers are expected to take to the rails, roads and skies during the...
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15 May 2019 Carlos Caicedo
Argentine president’s plan of national unity rejected by opposition, election uncertainty continues to be key risk driver.
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15 May 2019 Jack Kennedy
Implementation of ceasefire conditions reduces immediate likelihood of resumed escalation between Israel and Gazan militant groups.
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13 May 2019 Brian Lawson
Threats of increased US tariffs on China, Hong Kong’s debut Green bond and long-dated Eurozone supply.
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10 May 2019 James Bohnaker
The decade-long spurt for US tourism is fizzling. Solid domestic demand being offset by fewer foreign arrivals, due to slowing global growth...
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09 May 2019 William May
Mixed data drains optimism from commodities
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08 May 2019 Sara L. Johnson, CBE Nariman Behravesh, Ph.D.
Global monetary policy actions and resulting economic impact around the world
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08 May 2019
Consensus Economics names S&P Global best forecasters for Colombia and Malaysia in 2018
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07 May 2019
Lebanon’s 2019 draft budget unlikely to reduce fiscal deficit significantly; recurring protests over public-sector cuts likely.
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07 May 2019 Langelihle Malimela
Ruling ANC divided ahead of pivotal South African election
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03 May 2019 Kathleen Navin, CBE Ben Herzon, Ph.D.
Monthly GDP Index rose 0.1% in March 2019
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03 May 2019 Brian Lawson
This week’s headlines are about future supply, of which sovereign deals by Kenya and Oman represent important debt-sustainability tests.
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02 May 2019
Chadian crackdown on civil society and internet restrictions indicate president's insecurities but Sudan-style overthrow unlikely
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01 May 2019 Carla Selman
Forestry contractors in Chile's Araucanía region are increasingly targets of arson attacks by Mapuche indigenous extremists.
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30 April 2019 Petya Barzilska
Archaeological, environmental concerns and local protests in Greece likely to impede construction projects ahead of elections.
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30 April 2019 Camille Chavrier
Bulgaria’s supervisory framework is weaker than European Union’s standards, raising uncertainty over its near-term accession to the banking union...
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26 April 2019 Brian Lawson
Cyprus and Greece plan early market refinancing of official “rescue” borrowings while Italy will badly miss its EU-agreed budget goals
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24 April 2019 William May
A broad but shallow rise indicates caution still
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18 April 2019 Brian Lawson
IPO activity has been boosted by eight US flotations and sizeable deals from Swiss, Italian, Chinese and African issuers.
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18 April 2019 Kathleen Navin, CBE Ben Herzon, Ph.D.
According to our Monthly GDP Index, monthly GDP fell 0.5% in February.
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18 April 2019 Dijedon Imeri
Anti-government protests in Albania pose property damage risks but unlikely to topple government.
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17 April 2019 Arthur Dhont
Venezuelan migrant flows to Colombia to continue rising, increasing welfare outlays; risk of related protests remains moderate.
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16 April 2019 Kit Nicholl
Proposed referendum on privatization of Paris airports unlikely to be replicated across other projects.
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11 April 2019 Ken Matheny, Ph.D.
The proposed nominations of Stephen Moore and Herman Cain to the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
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11 April 2019 Petya Barzilska Camille Chavrier Brian Lawson
Spend 30 minutes with our experts and understand what's happening in Bulgaria
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11 April 2019 Jack A. Kennedy
Outcome and implications from the election
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11 April 2019 Raj Badiani
Due to Brexit-related uncertainty, UK real GDP growth is projected to downshift-the risks remain overwhelmingly on the downside.
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10 April 2019 William May
Supply disruptions, geopolitical tension and positive economic data help to move commodities higher.
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09 April 2019 Carlos Caicedo
Opening Brazilian airline industry to foreign investment highly likely as Lower House approves government-sponsored bill.
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05 April 2019 Deepa Kumar
Indian Supreme Court ruling against RBI will weaken insolvency regime, potentially increasing government interference in corporate resolution....
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04 April 2019 Carlos Caicedo
Aftermath of mining disaster in Brazil's Minas Gerais impairs royalties and tax collection, non-payment risk rises.
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03 April 2019 Petya Barzilska
European Parliament passes copyright directive; increased regulatory burden for online platforms mitigated by implementation delays and low enforceability....
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03 April 2019 Carlos Cardenas
Mexico unlikely to control migration flows into the US, increasing risk of trade-related disruptions at US-Mexico border.
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03 April 2019
A struggling manufacturing sector continues to present a challenge for commodity markets
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02 April 2019 Kathleen Navin, CBE Ben Herzon, Ph.D.
According to our Monthly GDP Index, monthly GDP rose 0.7% in January.
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02 April 2019 Venla Sipilä-Rosen
Strong domestic credit growth and solid export revenue inflows secured remarkably strong economic expansion in Georgia 2018, but some weakening...
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29 March 2019 Asad Ali
Presidential-election delay raises risk of violent protests in Kabul and northern Afghanistan; interim government increasingly likely.
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29 March 2019 Brian Lawson
Over USD10 trillion of debt now provides negative yields, versus USD5.7 billion early in 2018
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28 March 2019 Arthur Dhont
Rising rates of drug-related violence in Colombia’s Medellín heighten collateral injury risks to bystanders.
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27 March 2019 William May
Oil and chemicals prices dominate otherwise calm markets.
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27 March 2019 Alex Kokcharov
Ukraine’s presidential election very likely to see split vote leading to second round; conflicting policy announcements likely.
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25 March 2019 Paula Diosquez-Rice
Volatility returned to the currency market driven by the elevated inflation rate and the failed attempt to reduce the extreme monetary policy...
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22 March 2019 Brian Lawson
This week’s bond issuance is exceptional, with five emerging market sovereign deals and four bank AT1 perpetuals.
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20 March 2019 William May
Fundamentals rather than politics play on most commodities.
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20 March 2019 Martin Roberts
Gambian president sacks deputy, two senior ministers but presence of regional peacekeeping force mitigates civil war risk.
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19 March 2019 Carla Selman
Renewed social programs funding to help contain protest risks, but unlikely to improve Argentine president’s re-election prospects
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19 March 2019 Emily Crowley
Understand the impact of wage policy on price increases in 2019
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18 March 2019
The Trump Administration’s tariffs on US imports of iron, steel, and other metals, plus additional tariffs on goods from China, will dampen both...
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15 March 2019 Brian Lawson
Petrobras revives Latin American bond supply with USD3 billion long-dated success
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14 March 2019 Matthew Henman Deepa Kumar
Ambush underlines growing tempo of separatist violence in Indonesia’s Papua; threat remains limited in scope and capability.
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13 March 2019 William May
US jobs data and Chinese exports helped to weigh on global markets and sentiment
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13 March 2019 Kit Nicholl
Likely ad-hoc repatriation of Islamic State foreign fighters would strengthen jihadist networks in Europe.
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08 March 2019 Brian Lawson
Despite equity market strength, developed market equity funds show ongoing outflows
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06 March 2019 Martin Roberts
Incumbent's clear first-round victory in Senegalese presidential election reduces protest risk and boosts further infrastructure expansion.
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06 March 2019 William May John Anton
What does the Vale mine disaster mean for steel buyers?
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01 March 2019 Cristina Arbelaez Kari Pries
Despite the worsening economic and political outlook Nicaragua’s President Ortega is likely to remain in power until the next presidential elections...
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28 February 2019 Alex Kokcharov
Moldova’s parliamentary vote outcome indicates likelihood of a minority government or a new election.
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27 February 2019 Kathleen Navin, CBE Ben Herzon, Ph.D.
According to our Monthly GDP Index, monthly GDP rose 0.2% in December.
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27 February 2019 Kathleen Navin, CBE Ben Herzon, Ph.D.
According to our Monthly GDP Index, monthly GDP rose 0.1% in November.
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27 February 2019 Thomas McCartin William May
Positive sentiment offsets weak data keeping commodity prices relatively flat
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26 February 2019 Deepa Kumar Asad Ali
Indian airstrike in Pakistani territory increases risk of unintended military escalation, but full military confrontation unlikely
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26 February 2019 Jihane Boudiaf
Sudanese president's cabinet, governor reshuffle indicates shrinking support base, aimed at ensuring military's loyalty amid ongoing protests....
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26 February 2019 Carlos Caicedo
Latin American risks presentation at the March ISMA-OSAC conference
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24 February 2019 Brian Lawson
Three successful sovereign sales, further AT1 supply and corporate issuance all indicate strong demand for longer-duration debt
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20 February 2019 William May
Commodity prices retreated on disappointing macroeconomic data in light trading.
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15 February 2019 Tom Jackson
Due to local opposition, Amazon has decided not to pursue the New York City portion of its “HQ2” project.
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15 February 2019 Brian Lawson
Santander’s high-profile decision was based on balancing between shareholder and bondholder interests.
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14 February 2019 Dijedon Imeri
Statement on Trepça mining complex indicates renewed EU, international drive for comprehensive relationship agreement between Kosovo and Serbia....
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13 February 2019 William May
Vale dam accident sends iron ore market running scared as prices test $90 /t level.
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13 February 2019 Carlos Caicedo
Pro-government leaders to head Brazilian Congress; fractured legislature and resistance to austerity likely to dilute pension reform.
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08 February 2019
While bond markets continue looking receptive and the US IPO calendar is reviving, the latest EU PMIs point to tougher equity conditions
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07 February 2019 Columb Strack
The Islamic State’s territorial control has shrunk to a hand-full of small villages in the desert of eastern Syria, about 50 km2. We expect these...
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07 February 2019 Ken Wattret
Although it is not our base case, we assess the risk of a “technical” recession at around one in three. A severe recession remains unlikely...
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06 February 2019 Vaiva Seckute
Tools to raise additional budget revenues spooked the financial markets in Romania. A deeper dive into the Romanian economy shows that those...
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06 February 2019 William May
Better sentiment carried prices higher though markets showed significant volatility.
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06 February 2019 Carla Selman
Moderate Peronist faction to challenge Argentine president’s re-election, but likely to maintain pro-business agenda and IMF deal.
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05 February 2019 Nariman Behravesh, Ph.D.
Compared with the euphoric mood in Davos 2018, this year the delegates were more subdued and wary.
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01 February 2019
Greece’s EUR2.5 billion deal came alongside three other European SSA successes, gaining demand of EUR82 billion for EUR17.5 billion supply.
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31 January 2019 Alex Barnes
Overwhelming vote for autonomy in Mindanao signals eventual MILF demobilization, security stabilization.
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30 January 2019 Cristina Arbelaez Brian Lawson
Take 30 minutes with our experts and understand what's happening in Nicaragua
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30 January 2019 William May
Geopolitics, fundamentals and sentiment all played a part in limiting commodity markets last week.
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28 January 2019 Brian Lawson
Developments in both debt and equity markets almost entirely represent positive indicators, with demand extending to higher-risk perpetual debt....
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25 January 2019 Deepa Kumar
Indonesia's 2019 presidential election likely getting tighter; policy continuity expected
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24 January 2019 Diego Moya-Ocampos, LLB Carlos Cardenas
Further rank-and-file mutinies likely in Venezuela alongside anti-government protests in traditionally pro-government shanty towns.
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23 January 2019 Ludovico Carlino
Revived Islamic State likely to mount raids into Libya’s Tripolitania and Cyrenaica from bases in southern desert .
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23 January 2019 William May
Rumors from US-China trade negotiations hint at an easing trade war and improved sentiment
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22 January 2019 Asad Ali
Pakistani separatist groups likely to be increasingly active despite sustained decline in nationwide NSAG attacks since 2014 .
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18 January 2019 Thea Fourie
Longer-term growth prospects appear less upbeat as the South African government pursues more aggressive redistribution policies
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17 January 2019 William May
Optimism around US-China trade talks and a jump in oil send commodity prices higher
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17 January 2019 Jan Gerhard
UK government's parliamentary defeat on deal with EU increases probability of delay to Brexit beyond March.
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17 January 2019 Sara L. Johnson, CBE Nariman Behravesh, Ph.D.
Policy mistakes, especially regarding trade, continue to be the biggest threats to global growth
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16 January 2019 Raj Badiani
Analysis on the political and economic implications of the rejection of the proposed Brexit deal
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15 January 2019 Columb Strack
Despite security improvements, residual elevated risk of collateral damage at Damascus Airport, mainly from Israeli airstrikes.
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11 January 2019 Theo Acheampong, Ph.D.
Increased Zambian minerals royalties indicate government focus on natural resource sector to boost fiscal revenues, anti-government protests...
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11 January 2019 Brian Lawson
In 2019’s first full week’s trading, diverse emerging market sales and heavy European sovereign supply dominated primary activity.
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10 January 2019 William May
Oil prices bounce in an oversold market, lifting the S&P Global Materials Price Index.
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10 January 2019 Ben Herzon, Ph.D.
The unemployment rate could be boosted by as much as 0.2 percentage point and payroll employment could be reduced by as much as 380,000.
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10 January 2019
Policy paralysis likely in run-up to Panama's May presidential election; pro-business frontrunners will promote FDI.
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09 January 2019 Dijedon Imeri
Anti-government protests increase risk of snap election but unlikely to produce change in Serbian government.
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04 January 2019 Brian Lawson
Weak PMIs have indicated manufacturing-sector slowdown in both China and the EU, hindering equity market recovery.
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03 January 2019 William May
Oil keeps the commodities rout going in an otherwise directionless market
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27 December 2018 William May
Higher US interest rates and turmoil in Washington kept stock markets uneasy and sent commodity prices lower last week.
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27 December 2018 Andrew Birch
Net portfolio investment inflows have returned, but will remain precarious through 2019. External financing remains a challenge.
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21 December 2018 Brian Lawson
Despite a favorable bondholder tender, uncertainties remain over USD6 billion of MexCAT project bonds. Venezuela faces initial acceleration push...
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21 December 2018 Raj Badiani
An S&P Global scenario predicts that the economic consequences of a no-deal Brexit would be damaging.
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20 December 2018
Kosovo’s government has decided to use extreme economic measures to direct world’s attention to its political grievances.
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20 December 2018 Deepa Kumar
BJP loses three Indian state elections; increased support for agriculture and MSMEs, greater RBI policy alignment likely.
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20 December 2018 William May
Continued softness in commodity prices illustrates demand concerns.
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19 December 2018 Carlos Caicedo
Growing military influence in Brazil's new government, but support for privatization likely on selective target non-strategic assets.
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17 December 2018 Vaiva Seckute
Prospects are bright for now but negative effects of high emigration and low fertility rates will weigh on growth especially in Latvia and Lithuania....
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14 December 2018 Brian Lawson
Unsurprisingly, this week’s calendar is seasonally light.
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14 December 2018
Death and injury, armed robbery risks increase in Panama's Colón province, despite police anti-gang operations.
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14 December 2018 Theo Acheampong, Ph.D. Thea Fourie
Zambian Constitutional Court ruling permits president to seek additional term amid ruling-party splits, non-payment risks likely.
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13 December 2018 William May
Oil bounces on OPEC supply agreement but recent momentum and trade tensions still take commodity prices lower.
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13 December 2018 Nariman Behravesh, Ph.D.
These top 10 economic risks, combined with heightened political uncertainty in many parts of the world, point to the increased vulnerability...
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12 December 2018 Diego Moya-Ocampos, LLB
Petroperú oil spills underline security and operational shortcomings amid local opposition in Peru.
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07 December 2018 Laurence Allan, Ph.D.
Regional election results in Andalucía likely to confirm challenges to Spain's main parties in 2019
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07 December 2018
High yield and non-callable fixed rate corporate debt have declined most
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06 December 2018 William May
After declining for most of the week, markets rally as positive headlines flow from the G20 summit
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05 December 2018
Vote against mining company highlights strained economy, increasing arbitrary business demands, and violent protest risks in Liberia.
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30 November 2018 Carla Selman
Haiti's opposition-promoted protests increase chances of government change over coming year; delays to legislative elections likely
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30 November 2018 Carlos Cardenas
Mexican mining draft law to increase environmental, social impact oversight over sector, but approval unlikely in 2018
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30 November 2018 Brian Lawson
Issuing banks have sold TLAC/MREL eligible and subordinated deals
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30 November 2018 Chris Suckling, Ph.D.
Anti-corruption arrests indicate diminishing resistance within ruling party to reducing economic influence of Ethiopian state-directed, -owned...
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29 November 2018 William May
Demand concerns meant another bruising week for oil, with the MPI dropping again.
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28 November 2018 Kathleen Navin, CBE Ben Herzon, Ph.D.
According to our Monthly GDP Index, monthly GDP rose 0.3% in October.
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27 November 2018 James Bohnaker
A roaring job market is the gift that keeps on giving in 2018.
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22 November 2018 William May
A number of bearish signals drove a broad-based decline in the MPI last week
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21 November 2018 Deepa Kumar
Reserve Bank of India meeting signals increased executive scrutiny of central bank policy, interference in other independent institutions likely....
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20 November 2018 Timo Klein
Temporary factors were responsible for much of the latest economic downturn
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20 November 2018 Ludovico Carlino
Revised UN plan for Libya unlikely to facilitate east-west rapprochement, maintaining the current status quo.
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19 November 2018 Kit Nicholl Andrew Birch
Croatia is nearing Schengen membership, benefiting EU ties while hardening the borders with its southeastern neighbors.
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16 November 2018 David Deull
Healthy supply to take a bite out of turkey prices
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16 November 2018 Alex Barnes
Bougainville mid-2019 independence referendum in Papua New Guinea to delay mining development, raise likelihood of landowner attacks
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16 November 2018 Jan Gerhard
Formal UK cabinet backing for draft EU Withdrawal Bill represents weak indicator of final parliamentary approval
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16 November 2018 Brian Lawson
Bond successes for Nigeria, Indonesia’s Italum and Gazprom and NLB/Kazatomprom equity opening premiums indicate stabilized primary markets
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15 November 2018 William May
US mid-term election results lift sentiment before trade concerns drain the cheer again
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15 November 2018 Jack A. Kennedy
Gaza ceasefire to hold but accelerate Israeli cabinet divisions and sustain high risk of renewed conflict.
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14 November 2018 Carlos Cardenas
Disagreement between Mexican president-elect and his party to delay control of banking fees, regulatory changes still likely
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13 November 2018 Tom Jackson
Amazon announced that its new second headquarters will be divided among locations in the New York City and Washington, DC, metro areas.
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13 November 2018 Diego Moya-Ocampos, LLB Brian Lawson
Despite political noise and adverse recent headlines our view of Peru continues to be positive
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09 November 2018 Carla Selman
IMF 'safeguard' unlikely to reduce Argentina's protest and strike risks; cargo and transport disruption, property damage likely
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09 November 2018 Brian Lawson
Mozambique progresses debt restructuring by agreeing to share gas revenues with creditors; gas production remains key to debt sustainability....
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08 November 2018 William May
Mixed messages on trade and lackluster data on global manufacturing activity continued to push commodity prices lower
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07 November 2018 Hanna Luchnikava-Schorsch Deepa Kumar Angus Lam
Parliamentary elections in 2019 encourage government interference with RBI; policy reversals to increase India's external vulnerabilities.
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07 November 2018 Lindsay Newman, Ph.D. John Raines, Ph.D.
New US Congress to result in policy gridlock and executive action on tariffs, sanctions, and deregulation.
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02 November 2018 Brian Lawson
Significant privatizations represent an important indicator of market resilience, while having major impacts for the vendor countries.
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02 November 2018 Hanna Luchnikava-Schorsch Asad Ali
Pakistan’s new government of Imran Khan reluctantly returns to the IMF after other efforts to ease its external financial pressures fail
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01 November 2018 Emily Crowley
The wage outlook for unskilled construction labor for each US geographic region
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01 November 2018 Ken Wattret
Why the euro has risen so much on a trade-weighted basis and why it matters
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01 November 2018 Asad Ali
Sri Lankan PM's removal triggers constitutional crisis; early parliamentary elections likely and protest risks increasing in Colombo.
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01 November 2018 William May
Markets tumble further despite attempts by Chinese policy makers to lift the mood
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31 October 2018 Hanna Luchnikava-Schorsch Deepa Kumar Brian Lawson Angus Lam
our initial assessment of the enactment of Section 7 of the RBI Act and the likely policy implications
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30 October 2018 Carlos Caicedo
Brazil elects far-right president; policy direction and economic performance require details of new cabinet, fiscal adjustments.
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29 October 2018 David Deull
Halloween candy prices will likely lurch upward this year, but candy spending is not spooked
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28 October 2018 Kathleen Navin, CBE Ben Herzon, Ph.D.
According to our Monthly GDP Index, monthly GDP rose 0.3% in September.
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26 October 2018 Brian Lawson
Ample equity market supply, sharp price cuts and outright withdrawals leave several important equity sales facing uncertain markets.
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25 October 2018 William May
Geopolitical issues dominate, driving significant volatility in currency and commodity prices.
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24 October 2018 Lindsay Newman, Ph.D. John Raines, Ph.D.
Our analysts look at three possible election outcomes and assess the policy implications.
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24 October 2018 Raj Badiani
Our stress scenario, using our Global Link Model, indicates a domestic recession but a smaller impact on the eurozone.
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22 October 2018 Alisa Strobel
Zimbabwe revises GDP data and includes informal sector for the first time while the new Finance Minister announces ambitious economic stabilization...
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19 October 2018 Brian Lawson
While major IPO postponements indicate worsening sentiment, Turkey’s market return and Pemex’s 10-year bond sale are clearly risk-positive.
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19 October 2018 Petya Barzilska
Bulgarian prosecutors likely to continue drive for corruption and organized crime convictions, increasing business disruption, non-payment risks....
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18 October 2018 William May
US Treasury yield move prompts largest global equity sell off since January.
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