Market Briefing: Bulgaria

Bulgaria is applying to join the ERM, the precursor to full-scale Eurozone entry, in mid-2019, with the potential fallback date of early 2020. This implies it could form part of the Eurozone from 2022. It does so having maintained a stable currency peg, firstly against the Deutschemark and subsequently the Euro, for the last two decades including through the 2008 financial crisis and subsequent Eurozone dislocations.

In a 30-minute briefing IHS Markit experts from our economics, country risk and banking risk teams assess opportunities in Bulgaria and the associated risk environment. This includes review of:

• Bulgaria's ability to attract foreign investment, its international openness, and its position within global supply chains
• Key impacts of its long-established currency board on its fiscal and external balances, and the strength of its Eurozone credentials
• Remaining economic challenges, such as adverse demographics
• Bulgaria's ability to satisfy EU criteria for ERM and eventual Euro-zone entry
• Political and policy stability, and the key risk issue of fighting corruption
• Current weaknesses in banking supervision and the path towards improved regulation
• Popular domestic views of the EU and use of the Euro.

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IHS Markit Speakers

Brian Lawson
Senior Economic and Financial Consultant

Petya Barzilska
Senior Research Analyst

Camille Chavrier
Senior Economist

Daniel Kral
Senior Economist

Posted 11 April 2019 by Brian Lawson, Senior Economic and Financial Consultant, Country Risk, S&P Global Market Intelligence and

Camille Chavrier, Economist and

Petya Barzilska, Sr. Research Analyst II, Europe & CIS Country Risk, S&P Global Market Intelligence