July Light Vehicle Production Forecast

Each month, we leverage global light vehicle production actuals, registration data, and sales data to give you the most up-to-date, short-term production forecast available.

Here's a close look at global production data by region and our updated July production forecast.

Top Takeaways for the Month

The outlook for the global auto industry in the second half of 2024 remains challenging. Automakers are facing regional demand dynamics and inventory conditions, leading to notable downgrades in production forecasts.

Noteworthy Adjustments:

Europe: The outlook for European light vehicle production was reduced by 148,000 units for 2024 on heightened concerns around growing inventories and expected production restraint in the second half of the year. The impact of the new EU tariffs on electric vehicles from China is also considered, with little positive impact on volumes.

Greater China: The outlook for Greater China's light vehicle production was reduced by 398,000 units for 2024. Domestic consumption and vehicle demand remain stagnant, leading to intense competition and OEMs focusing on overseas markets. The outlook for 2025 was also reduced due to a weaker market recovery expectation.

Japan/Korea: Japan's production was downgraded by 36,000 units for 2024, while South Korea's production increased by 43,000 units. Demand for hybrid vehicles is replacing slowing battery electric vehicle production. The forecasts for 2025 and 2026 show minor changes.

North America: The outlook for North America's light vehicle production was reduced by 125,000 units for 2024. The Detroit 3 manufacturers are facing excessive inventory levels and struggling to balance sales and production. The outlook for 2025 was revised down by 1.6% due to a greater inventory correction process.

South America: The outlook for South America's light vehicle production was largely unchanged for 2024. However, it was reduced by 40,000 units for 2025 and 51,000 units for 2026 due to a more cautious outlook for exports from Argentina.

South Asia: The outlook for South Asia's light vehicle production was reduced by 147,000 units for 2024. The outlook for Indonesia and Thailand was reduced as the markets are influenced by economic headwinds and stricter auto loan policies. India's market is also impacted by elevated inventory levels and uncertainties associated with the government.

These regional adjustments reflect the challenges faced by the global auto industry in balancing demand, inventory management, and changing market conditions.

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This article was published by S&P Global Mobility and not by S&P Global Ratings, which is a separately managed division of S&P Global.