November 2024 Light Vehicle Production Forecast

Each month, we leverage global light vehicle production actuals, registration data, and sales data to provide the most up-to-date, short-term production forecast available.

Here's a close look at global production data by region and our updated November production forecast.

Top Takeaways for the Month

Light vehicle production forecasts are mixed globally, with notable downgrades in Europe and South Asia, while Greater China sees an upward revision due to improved sales from government scrappage subsidies. The US elections have introduced uncertainties that are expected to negatively affect BEV volumes and the electrification mix. Overall, the 2024 production outlook is slightly stronger, but ongoing inventory management and demand dynamics continue to pose challenges across various regions.

Noteworthy Adjustments

Europe: The light vehicle production outlook for Europe has been downgraded by 92,000 units for 2024, primarily due to reduced forecasts for Stellantis and Volvo. Concerns over potential strikes and production disruptions, including flooding in Spain, have further impacted the forecast.

Greater China: Greater China's production outlook has been increased by 409,000 units for 2024, driven by a recovery in sales supported by scrappage subsidies. The market is expected to grow by 2.4% year-over-year, although economic uncertainties may temper future projections.

Japan/Korea: Japan's production outlook for 2025 has been upgraded by 39,000 units, with Toyota expected to maintain strong momentum. In contrast, South Korea's production forecast for 2024 has been reduced by 12,000 units due to disappointing domestic sales and exports.

North America: North America's production outlook remains largely unchanged and continues to generally reflect needed inventory correction. Ford's production for 2025 has been revised down by 45,000 units on the expected need to de-stock as we enter the new year. Additionally, production for Stellantis for 2024 was reduced by 48,000 units due to meaningful production downtime in Q4-2024 in order to rein in elevated inventories.

South America: The South American light vehicle production outlook has been increased by 23,000 units for 2024, attributed to stronger-than-expected production results in Brazil and Argentina. Adjustments for 2025 and 2026 were minor, focusing on vehicle timing changes.

South Asia: South Asia's production outlook has been reduced by 63,000 units for 2024, driven by production weaknesses in the ASEAN market and high inventory levels in India. Downward revisions for 2025 and 2026 reflect incremental domestic and export demand challenges, particularly in the ASEAN market.

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This article was published by S&P Global Mobility and not by S&P Global Ratings, which is a separately managed division of S&P Global.