Light Vehicle Production Forecast August 2024

Each month, we leverage global light vehicle production actuals, registration data, and sales data to give you the most up-to-date, short-term production forecast available.

Here's a close look at global production data by region and our updated August production forecast.

Top Takeaways

The global auto industry continues to wrestle with slowing sales growth in several key markets and rather high inventories, among other factors. The production outlook reflects these ongoing challenges, and our August forecast update includes a mix of both upgrades and downgrades in the near-term. Regional adjustments reflect the impact of expanded policy support in China offset by a focus on inventory management and company-specific adjustments in North America.

Noteworthy Adjustments

Europe: The outlook for Europe light vehicle production was increased by 60,000 units and by 31,000 units for 2024 and 2025, respectively. The outlook for Western and Central Europe, including Turkey, was revised down by 13,000 units. This was due to somewhat stagnated vehicle demand and supply chain issues. The broader European market continues to be influenced by elevated vehicle pricing, lingering high inflation and the ongoing shift in electrification.

Greater China: The outlook for Greater China light vehicle production was increased by 227,000 units and reduced by 354,000 for 2024 and 2025, respectively. In the extreme near-term, production is supported by a bolstered scrappage incentive program, which also results in something of a pay-back effect after 2024. The forecast continues to reflect some negative impact to production from European tariff actions; however, we expect export activity to remain quite robust as markets wait for Chinese localization efforts to more fully ramp-up.

Japan/Korea: Full-year 2024 Japan production was downgraded modestly by 11,000 units relative to last month's forecast. The downward revision is primarily associated with Daihatsu as the company is expected to face production impacts later this year related to compliance with new regulations. South Korea production was upgraded to 4.11 million units in 2025 and 3.91 million units in 2026 due to increased demand for the Renault Arkana.

North America: The outlook for North America light vehicle production was reduced by 173,000 units and by 102,000 units for 2024 and 2025, respectively. These reductions are primarily due to inventory-related reductions and production issues at Toyota. Production at Toyota's Princetown West plant remains idled due to a recent airbag recall, resulting in a loss of additional units.

South America: The outlook for South America light vehicle production was reduced by 2,000 units and by 1,000 units for 2024 and 2025, respectively. In the extreme near-term, the outlook for the region remains largely in-line with expectations as stronger production actuals for Brazil offset lingering weakness in Argentina.

South Asia: The outlook for South Asia light vehicle production was reduced by 11,000 units and by 56,000 units for 2024 and 2025, respectively. South Asia's light vehicle production forecast for 2024 was largely unchanged with the August update, with only a minor downward adjustment for the ASEAN market due to stricter auto loan approvals amidst a challenging market environment. The weakness in ASEAN continues to be primarily focused on Thailand and Indonesia.

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This article was published by S&P Global Mobility and not by S&P Global Ratings, which is a separately managed division of S&P Global.