August 2024 auto sales in the US – big volume, but little change to underlying dynamics

August 2024 auto sales volume is expected to be one of the largest of the year.

On a volume estimate of 1.42 million units, August 2024 auto sales in the US are expected to be up more than 7% year over year and grow more than 11% from the month-prior level. This translates to a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 15.2 million units, a moderate reading in a market continuing to wait for sales levels to advance more strongly.

"New vehicle affordability remains the biggest obstacle preventing further advances in the pace of auto sales," said Chris Hopson, principal analyst at S&P Global Mobility. "The current environment of still-high interest rates and slow-to-recede vehicle prices are translating to still-high monthly payments and little progress for new vehicle demand levels."

US Light Vehicle Sales August 2024

US Light Vehicle Sales Comparisons

Continued advances in inventories and incentives are expected over the remainder of the year — two levers necessary for affordability issues to ease and sales to progress. But recent developments reflect some volatility for both metrics.

According to Matt Trommer, associate director, S&P Global Mobility, "Analysis of July retail advertised inventory data in the US finds that inventory declined compared to month-end June reporting, the first month-over-month drop since May 2023. Available retail advertised inventory at the end of July was up 52.5% compared to last year, but down 2.3% from June 2024."

Strong development of battery-electric vehicle (BEV) sales remains an assumption in the longer term S&P Global Mobility light vehicle sales forecast. In the immediate term, moderate month-to-month volatility is anticipated. Battery electric vehicle sales share in August 2024 is expected to reach 8.1%, similar to the month-prior reading and continued advancement from the Q1 2024 results.

BEV share is expected to progress over the next several months, continuing the upward trend realized since April 2024, assisted by the roll outs of vehicles such as the Chevrolet Equinox EV and Honda Prologue, followed by new BEVs such as the Jeep Wagoneer S and Volkswagen ID. Buzz slated for release in the second half of 2024.

US Battery Electric Vehicle Sales Share

Get a free preview of our Light Vehicle Sales Forecast.

Download forecast.

This article was published by S&P Global Mobility and not by S&P Global Ratings, which is a separately managed division of S&P Global.