Week Ahead Economic Preview: Week of 24 November 2025

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Markets brace for UK Autumn Budget

A shortened week for US markets due to Thanksgiving means the focus of attention shifts to Europe, and in particular the UK's Autumn Budget.

Gilts markets are braced for Wednesday's Budget whereby the UK government will seek to reassure bond investors that it can raise taxes to tackle the country's debt problem without damaging either economic growth prospects or its political credibility. The Budget follows unwelcome news of higher than expected government borrowing while only meagre economic growth persisted into November, according to the flash PMI data. The latter also showed jobs being cut at a worryingly steep rate amid widespread uncertainty about the economic outlook, in turn often linked directly to the upcoming Budget and additional staffing cost policies announced in last year's Budget.

While the US government shutdown has ended, it nevertheless continues to interfere with official economic data releases. However, the new week does see the late issuance of US producer price data alongside business surveys from the Dallas and Richmond Feds, as well as Conference Board consumer sentiment data and S&P/Case Shiller house price data. These numbers follow the US flash PMI, which showed sustained robust economic growth persisting into November, albeit with tariffs again attributed to elevated inflationary pressures.

Signs of improved fourth quarter growth were meanwhile evident in the Eurozone flash PMI, and third quarter GDP data for the region's major economies of Germany, France, Italy and Spain will be released in the coming week to provide an updated look in the rear-view mirror.

Over in Asia, industrial profits and the NBS PMI data will be assessed for indications on the health of the mainland Chinese economy, while Japan issues industrial production, retail sales and unemployment data. Japan's GDP data showed a decline in the third quarter, but recent survey data have presented a somewhat brighter picture so far in the fourth quarter, including signs of sustained price rises. Views are hence mixed on the next move from the Bank of Japan, bringing next week's economic activity data under the spotlight for central bank watchers in particular.

Economic growth showed encouraging resilience across the four major developed economies as a whole in November, according to S&P Global's flash PMI surveys. Growth across the G4 was the joint-highest seen over the past two-and-a-half years. Business activity growth accelerated in the US and Japan and remained solid in the eurozone. The UK bucked the trend, however, being the only G4 economy to report a disappointing combination of markedly slower growth and falling employment.

The UK also bucked the wider G4 trend in being the only economy to see business confidence about the outlook deteriorate in November. In contrast, rising optimism in the US, eurozone and Japan has closed the worrying gap between current and expected output over the G4 as a whole.

Key diary events

Monday 24 Nov

Americas
- US Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Oct)
- US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (Nov)

EMEA
- Germany Ifo Business Climate (Nov)

APAC
Japan Market Holiday
- Singapore Inflation (Oct)

Tuesday 25 Nov

Americas
- Mexico Retail Sales (Sep)
- US ADP Weekly Employment Change
- US S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price (Sep)
- US Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Nov)
- US Pending Home Sales (Oct)
- US Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (Nov)

EMEA
- Germany GDP (Q3, final)

APAC
- Singapore GDP (Q3, final)
- Thailand Balance of Trade (Oct)
- Taiwan Industrial Production (Oct)
- Hong Kong SAR Balance of Trade (Oct)

Wednesday 26 Nov

Austria Bank Austria Manufacturing PMI*

Americas
Brazil Market Holiday
- US Durable Goods Orders (Oct)
- US GDP (Q3, 2nd est.)
- US Wholesale Inventories (Oct, adv)
- US Goods Trade Balance (Oct, adv)
- US Core PCE Price Index (Oct)
- US Personal Income and Spending (Oct)
- US New Home Sales (Oct)

EMEA
- UK Autumn Budget 2025

APAC
- Australia Inflation (Oct)
- New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
- Singapore Industrial Production (Oct)

Thursday 27 Nov

Americas
US Market Holiday
- Mexico Balance of Trade (Oct)

EMEA
- Germany GfK Consumer Confidence (Dec)
- Eurozone Economic Sentiment (Nov)

APAC
- South Korea BoK Interest Rate Decision
- China (Mainland) Industrial Profits (Oct)
- Taiwan Consumer Confidence (Nov)

Friday 28 Nov

Americas
US Market Holiday
- Canada GDP (Q3)

EMEA
- UK Nationwide Housing Prices (Nov)
- France, Germany, Italy Inflation (Nov, prelim)
- France, Italy, Spain, Switzerland GDP (Q3, final)
- Germany Unemployment Rate (Nov)

APAC
- South Korea Industrial Production (Oct)
- Japan Unemployment Rate (Oct)
- Japan Industrial Production, Retail Sales (Oct)
- Taiwan GDP (Q3, final)
- India Industrial Production (Oct)
- India GDP (Q3)

Sunday 30 Nov

APAC
- China (Mainland) NBS PMI (Nov)

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Purchasing Managers' Index™ (PMI^®) data are compiled by S&P Global for more than 40 economies worldwide. The monthly data are derived from surveys of senior executives at private sector companies, and are available only via subscription. The PMI dataset features a headline number, which indicates the overall health of an economy, and sub-indices, which provide insights into other key economic drivers such as GDP, inflation, exports, capacity utilization, employment and inventories. The PMI data are used by financial and corporate professionals to better understand where economies and markets are headed, and to uncover opportunities.

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