Global trade declines at end of 2025

The worldwide Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) surveys compiled by S&P Global Market Intelligence indicated a fresh decline in global trade in the closing month of 2025. The seasonally adjusted Global PMI New Export Orders Index, sponsored by J.P.Morgan and compiled by S&P Global, slipped to 49.2 in December, down from a neutral reading of 50.0 in November. Absent the stabilisation in November, global trade has deteriorated continuously since April 2025.

Broad-based deterioration in trade by sectors

Sector data from December indicated that manufacturing recorded a steeper fall in trade activity at the end of the fourth quarter. Posting below the 50.0 no-change mark, the seasonally adjusted manufacturing PMI New Export Orders Index indicated a ninth consecutive monthly reduction in export demand for goods. Although modest, the rate at which goods export orders lowered across the globe in December was sharper than the 2025 average, reflecting subdued trade conditions at the end of the year.

The fall in goods exports took place against a backdrop of lukewarm manufacturing growth in December. A stagnation of overall goods new orders, weighed partly by the renewed fall in exports, led to the softest rise in manufacturing production in five months. The moderation in manufacturing sector conditions further reflected tepid confidence among goods producers as the sector's Future Output Index, which reflects firms' views regarding the outlook for production in the next 12 months, remained below its long-run average in the closing month of the year. This also affected purchasing activity, as the seasonally adjusted Quantity of Purchases Index posted the quickest decline in seven months, as goods producers broadly cut back on purchases in a bid to lower their inventory holdings into the end of 2025.

Services exports meanwhile contracted in December after rising in November. This marked the second fall in services trade in three months, albeit only fractional. The latest downturn was prominent across the US and mainland China, both having seen a renewed reduction in the exchange of services. The eurozone also saw the decline in services new export business deepen, led by worsening trade in France.

Detailed sector PMI showed mainly service sectors in the lead for export growth. The best performers were the Media, Tourism & Recreation and Commercial & Professional Services sectors. On the other hand, it was a mix at the bottom with Real Estate, Forestry & Paper Products and Banks recording the sharpest downturns in new export business globally.

Emerging market new export business stalls while developed economies remain in downturn

Following a brief expansion in November, emerging markets saw no change in new export business at the end of 2025. This was attributed to a fresh fall in goods new export orders, though growth in services new export business also slowed from November. The downturn in trade was mainly driven by a reduction in exports from mainland China. Excluding mainland China, total new export orders rose at the fastest pace since February 2025 across emerging markets.

On the other hand, developed markets continued to report lower new export business in December, extending the sequence of contraction that began in June 2022. The rate of reduction was unchanged from November, remaining modest overall. A faster fall in services new export business was offset by a moderation in the contraction in goods exports, according to sector data.

India and South Korea lead the expansion in goods trade

The number of top ten trading economies recording higher goods exports remained at just two for a third straight month in December. Changes were seen again with South Korea replacing mainland China in being the only economy beside India recording growth in goods new export orders at the end of 2025. Though modest, the latest upturn in South Korean exports was the first in three months, driven by improvements in demand from key markets, according to manufacturers. This further supported an improvement in overall manufacturing conditions in South Korea.

Meanwhile, Indian manufacturers continued to see a strong rise in new export orders, albeit at the softest pace in 14 months. The latest slowdown in exports growth was the third in consecutive months and took place against a backdrop of softening expansions in both new orders and output in the Indian manufacturing sector.

On the other hand, Canada and Brazil continued to record the steepest downturns in goods trade at the end of the fourth quarter. Canada overtook Brazil in December with a steeper rate of reduction in exports, again widely attributed to the impact of US tariffs acting as a dampener on demand. Similarly for Brazil, international demand remained a victim of market uncertainty, though the rate of reduction moderated from November.

Modest declines in new export orders were meanwhile observed for Russia, the EU and Japan, while the US, UK and mainland China only saw marginal reductions in goods trade.

Access the global PMI press release here.

Jingyi Pan, Economics Associate Director, S&P Global Market Intelligence

jingyi.pan@spglobal.com

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Purchasing Managers' Index™ (PMI^®) data are compiled by S&P Global for more than 40 economies worldwide. The monthly data are derived from surveys of senior executives at private sector companies, and are available only via subscription. The PMI dataset features a headline number, which indicates the overall health of an economy, and sub-indices, which provide insights into other key economic drivers such as GDP, inflation, exports, capacity utilization, employment and inventories. The PMI data are used by financial and corporate professionals to better understand where economies and markets are headed, and to uncover opportunities.

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This article was published by S&P Global Market Intelligence and not by S&P Global Ratings, which is a separately managed division of S&P Global.