Light Vehicle Scenario Forecast

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In an industry shaped by policy shifts, technology disruptions, and market uncertainty, planning for one outcome is no longer an option. The Scenario Forecast Suite from S&P Global Mobility empowers automotive decision-makers to navigate volatility with clarity and control. Grounded in real-world assumptions and backed by robust data, it helps overcome the limits of static planning by offering interactive insights across multiple market futures- so you can evaluate risk, pressure-test decisions, and move with confidence no matter where the market goes.

Build strategies for every scenario Get a free automotive scenario forecast sample to compare optimistic, pessimistic, and baseline powertrain outlooks.

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Explore the scenario forecast software suite

Light Vehicle Production Base Scenario

Forecast OEM-level production volumes across regions. Plan for supply shifts and manufacturing trends using proven forecasting methods.

Light Vehicle Sales Base Scenario

Track expected vehicle demand by brand, segment, and market to inform your strategic planning process.

Light Vehicle Powertrain Base Scenario (New)

Evaluate drivetrain demand under different regulatory, cost, and technology scenarios—ideal for navigating uncertainty around powertrain products.

Each forecast is delivered with a complete set of supporting materials designed to accelerate your workflow. You’ll receive expertly curated slide decks that highlight key insights, explain assumptions, and present the data in clear, actionable formats, ideal for internal planning sessions, executive briefings, and strategic reviews. Combined with the interactive dashboard, the experience is built to help you explore trends, share insights, and make informed decisions with speed and confidence.

Introducing the Powertrain Scenario Forecast

S&P Global Mobility is introducing the Powertrain Scenario Forecast - the latest addition to the Scenario Forecast Suite - built to support the growing complexity of powertrain planning

Delivered quarterly through an interactive dashboard, it provides drivetrain-level insights across three structured market views: Baseline, Pessimistic (PER), and Optimistic (OPS). Each scenario applies defined assumptions to the core vehicle production forecast, reflecting macroeconomic trends, regulatory pressure, policy shifts, and technology costs.

PER models a lower-cost powertrain mix under a relaxed regulatory environment
OPS reflects a stricter, policy-driven shift toward higher-cost electrified systems

Whether you're managing supply chain risks, shaping propulsion strategy, or evaluating future investments, the Powertrain Scenario Forecast helps you compare outcomes side by side and make more confident, future-ready decisions. All assumptions are reviewed quarterly to stay aligned with the latest market and policy developments.

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Key features

Interactive Dashboard for Faster Insights

Access vehicle-level data across all OEMs through an upgraded e-file format designed for speed and ease of use. The interactive dashboard enables:

Instant filtering across predefined fields
On-the-fly chart generation
A seamless and intuitive exploration experience

Comprehensive Light Vehicle Coverage

Search across a wide field of light vehicle data points with flexibility to drill down by region, OEM, body type, and more.

Scenario-Based Volume Calculations

Quickly calculate targeted vehicle volumes using scenario overlays to simulate market shifts and operational impact.

Powertrain-Level Analysis

Enhance planning with drivetrain-level insights. Filter by fuel type, propulsion system, and regulatory pathway to evaluate trends across ICE and electrified portfolios.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is scenario forecasting in the automotive industry?

Scenario forecasting models future market conditions using structured assumptions about regulations, technology costs, and macroeconomic factors.

What is S&P Global Mobility’s approach?

S&P Global Mobility’s approach uses three market views:

Base Case: Most likely trajectory
Pessimistic (PER): reflects a pessimistic production outlook, favouring lower-cost powertrain technologies under a relaxed regulatory environment
Optimistic (OPS): projects an optimistic production environment shaped by stricter policies and higher-cost electrified systems

This helps you prepare for multiple possible futures using consistent, comparable datasets.

How does this support the strategic planning process?

Our forecasting software is designed to strengthen the strategic planning process by helping teams:

Model supply and demand shifts
Set product volume thresholds
Align manufacturing and sourcing plans
Forecast margins and capital allocation
Benchmark competitors and spot emerging risks

What’s changing for current forecast users?

As of November 2025, our legacy “contingency forecasts” will be renamed to reflect scenario-based alignment. All renamed products include the new interactive dashboard and drivetrain-level enhancements. Subscriptions and data cadence remain unchanged.

Key product update:

As of November 2025, our legacy contingency forecasts will be renamed to align with our scenario forecasting framework. These include:

Current Name	New Name
LV Sales – Sales Contingency Forecasts	LV Sales – Sales Base Scenario Forecasts
LV Sales – Contingency w/Body Type	LV Sales – Base Scenario w/Body Type
LV Prod – Production Contingency Forecast	LV Prod – Production Base Scenario Forecast
LV Prod – Contingency Bodystyle	LV Prod – Base Scenario Bodystyle

Who we help?

Strategic Planning and Product Teams: Model shifts in demand and production to guide product roadmaps, establish market volume thresholds, align cycle plans, and evaluate competitor positioning.

Supply Chain and Capacity Planning Teams: Use scenario overlays to optimize sourcing strategies, account for flex volume constraints, and prepare manufacturing operations for demand fluctuations.

Financial and Investment Stakeholders: Forecast revenue and margin across scenarios, plan capital allocation, conduct turnaround analyses, and evaluate macro-level impacts like labor shifts.

Market and Competitive Intelligence Teams: Benchmark competitors, monitor OEM strategy shifts across regions and propulsion types, and generate actionable insights to support executive decision-making.

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