Week Ahead Economic Preview: Week of 8 September 2025

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US inflation and UK GDP under the market's spotlight

The coming week's data releases bring US inflation under the spotlight, with the UK economy also under scrutiny from GDP data. Eurozone policymakers will also gather to set interest rates.

As the next FOMC meeting on 16-17 September draws closer, key points of interest will likely be the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) print on Thursday and consumer inflation expectations on Friday. While the annual change in CPI held at 2.7% in July, the core index rose 3.1%. Evidence of tariff-induced price hikes were again apparent, notably in accelerating price inflation for core goods, though the annual rate remained a relatively subdued 1.1%. Tariff effects are not yet showing up in some sectors, such as clothing and new vehicles, and shelter inflation has also moderated to act as a counterfoil to many tariff-linked price rises. Analysts will be keen to see how these key trends shifted in August.

While CPI will help assess the current inflation trend, policymakers will also want to see inflation expectations becoming more anchored. Although inflation expectations have cooled since April's two-decade peak of 4.4%, they ticked up again to 3.5% in August, according to the University of Michigan's survey. Widespread concerns about long-term inflation amid tariffs and questions over Fed independence mean the September update to expectations will be closely eyed by the bond markets in particular.

In Europe, the European Central Bank is expected to keep rates on hold when policymakers meet on Thursday, thanks to signs of improving economic growth and benign inflation, pushing attention to the UK instead, where the key data release is Friday's update to GDP for July. With the UK's fiscal position coming under added pressure from sluggish growth, and long-term borrowing costs rising to their highest since 1998, the government will be looking for some good news to add to a recent tentative brightening of the economic growth picture.

June's GDP data had shown a surprisingly strong 0.4% uplift after two months of 0.1% declines. While it may be too much to ask for another strong monthly GDP rise in July, some additional encouragement that the underlying trend is improving has been provided by recent PMI data, which showed UK growth hitting the highest for a year in August.

Finally, equity market sentiment changes will be tracked by our Investment Manager Index. The prior (August) release, which showed renewed risk aversion, is available here.

US consumer sentiment will be eagerly awaited, especially in relation to inflation expectations.

The UK government will be hoping for some better news on the economy as GDP data are released for July

Key diary events

Monday 8 Sep

Japan GDP (Q2, final)

China (Mainland) Trade (Aug)

Germany Trade (Jul)

Germany Industrial Production (Jul)

United States Consumer Inflation Expectations (Aug)

Tuesday 9 Sep

Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Change (Sep)

Australia NAB Business Confidence (Aug)

United Kingdom Regional Growth Tracker* (Aug)

Ireland AIB Construction PMI* (Aug)

France Industrial Production (Jul)

Taiwan Trade (Aug)

Mexico Inflation (Aug)

S&P Global Investment Manager Index* (Sep)

Wednesday 10 Sep

South Korea Unemployment Rate (Aug)

China (Mainland) CPI, PPI (Aug)

Norway Inflation (Aug)

Sweden GDP (Jul)

Türkiye Industrial Production (Jul)

Italy Industrial Production (Jul)

Brazil Inflation (Aug)

United States PPI (Aug)

United States Monthly Budget Statement (Aug)

Thursday 11 Sep

Malaysia Industrial Production (Jul)

Sweden Inflation (Aug, final)

France IEA Oil Market Report

Türkiye TCMB Interest Rate Decision

Brazil Retail Sales (Jul)

Mexico Industrial Production (Jul)

Eurozone ECB Interest Rate Decision

United States CPI (Aug)

GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index* (Aug)

Friday 12 Sep

United Kingdom RICS House Price Balance (Aug)

Japan Industrial Production (Jul, final)

China (Mainland) M2, New Yuan Loans, Loan Growth (Aug)

Germany Inflation (Aug, final)

United Kingdom monthly GDP, incl. Manufacturing, Services and Construction Output (Jul)

France Inflation (Aug, final)

Spain Inflation (Aug, final)

India Inflation (Aug)

United States UoM Sentiment (Sep, prelim)

* Access press releases of indices produced by S&P Global and relevant sponsors here.

What to watch in the coming week

Americas: US CPI, PPI, UoM sentiment; Mexico inflation

Following the release of the August labour market report, the final key piece of US economic data release due ahead of the September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting will be the US CPI data for August. According to the S&P Global US PMI prices data, which preludes the trend for inflation, there lies the risk of inflation rising further above the Fed's inflation target in the coming months. However, the key question will be the degree to which any rise in inflation might only be a temporary blip linked to tariffs, which can therefore be looked through. Producer price data will likewise add to the inflation picture in the US.

Additionally, the preliminary September University of Michigan sentiment survey will be published. Prior data have shown confidence running well below long run trends amid elevated readings for expected inflation and unemployment.

EMEA: ECB meeting; UK GDP; Germany trade, industrial production

The European Central Bank convenes for their September meeting with no change to interest rates expected according to the consensus. With the deposit rate already down to 2.0%, inflation running close to target and risks to growth easing amid improved PMI readings, the ECB is expected to keep rates unchanged for the foreseeable future.

Meanwhile, the UK publishes GDP data for July. S&P Global UK PMI data for July revealed that growth softened at the start of the third quarter of 2025 but accelerated again in August to suggest that growth is picking up again in the UK. Additionally, Germany's trade and industrial production will be updated for July.

APAC: China trade and inflation data; Japan GDP

Over in APAC, mainland China's trade and inflation data will be in the spotlight. According to the latest RatingDog General China PMI data, new export orders for goods contracted at a softer pace in August, pointing to a better reading compared to July. A stabilisation in factory output prices, according to PMI price indices, meanwhile contrasted with falling services charges in August.

Additionally, Japan updates the final reading for Q2 GDP following an initial 1.0% print.

Investment Manager Index and Supply Chain Volatility

September's S&P Global Investment Manager Index will be published on Tuesday for insights into views into US equity market sentiment among major money managers. The GEP Supply Chain Volatility Index will meanwhile shed light on changes in supply chain conditions following recent US tariff developments.

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