Week Ahead Economic Preview: Week of 23 November
The following is an extract from IHS Markit's latest Week Ahead Economic Preview. For the full report, please click on the 'Download Full Report' link.
- Flash PMI surveys for the US, Eurozone and UK
- Updated Q3 GDP estimates for the US, Germany, France and Singapore
- FOMC minutes
Flash PMI surveys will provide important mid-quarter insights into the state of the Eurozone, UK and US economies. The surveys will provide the first major clues as to how business conditions have changed in the aftermath of the US elections and at a time when the adverse impact of new lockdowns in many countries will have been countered by encouraging news on COVID-19 vaccines.
The US flash PMI will be noteworthy in providing the first post-election snapshot of the national economy. October data showed business growth accelerating to the strongest since May 2018, driven by the largest increase in services activity since April 2015 and a marked surge in confidence. Other key US releases include a fresh estimate of third quarter GDP, personal income, spending and prices, durable goods orders, home sales and house prices. The minutes from the last FOMC meeting are also released, at which policy was unchanged awaiting the election result, though with chair Powell emphasizing the importance of fiscal as well as monetary stimulus (page 3).
The Eurozone data will also be especially eagerly awaited after October's PMI showed the economy stalling as its third quarter rebound faded. The data raise the risks of a renewed downturn in the fourth quarter. There were marked variations, however, with Germany bucking the slowdown with strong factory-led growth. France and Germany also provide fresh estimates of their third quarter GDP rebounds.
In the United Kingdom, growth weakened markedly in October, and the further lockdown in November is expected to hit the economy hard, threatening a double-dip downturn. The data will also reveal the extent of business preparations and stockpiling ahead of the end of the Brexit transition period (page 4).
In Asia, industrial production releases in Japan, South Korea, Thailand, Singapore and Vietnam, plus China's industrial profits, are among the top picks, providing useful steers on the extent to which the region's manufacturers are pulling out of the downturn. Japanese retail sales and Singapore's GDP are also released, while South Korea's policymakers meet to set interest rates (page 5).
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PMI commentary: Chris Williamson
Europe commentary: Ken Wattret
APAC commentary: Rajiv Biswas and Bernard Aw
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Purchasing Managers' Index™ (PMI™) data are compiled by IHS Markit for more than 40 economies worldwide. The monthly data are derived from surveys of senior executives at private sector companies, and are available only via subscription. The PMI dataset features a headline number, which indicates the overall health of an economy, and sub-indices, which provide insights into other key economic drivers such as GDP, inflation, exports, capacity utilization, employment and inventories. The PMI data are used by financial and corporate professionals to better understand where economies and markets are headed, and to uncover opportunities.
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