Week Ahead Economic Preview: Week of 23 February 2026

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Inflation data to help guide policy trends in the US, Europe and Australia

Upcoming data will help guide markets on central bank policy, and in particular whether Japan and Australia might soon see further rate hikes.

Fresh clues will be sought as to changing economic dynamics after the February flash PMI surveys showed growth slowing in the US but accelerating across the other major developed economies. Although adverse weather in some states likely played a role, US business activity growth slipped to a ten-month low in February. Japan's expansion meanwhile hit a 33-month high and UK growth climbed to the fastest in 22-months. This means that, so far this year, the US expansion is now lagging that of the UK and Japan and drawing closer to the lacklustre pace seen in the eurozone, albeit the latter picking up some momentum to draw a further contrast with the US.

The US flash PMI also once again saw above average price growth, helping in part explain some of the spending aversion evident in the US PMI data, with many firms continuing to blame tariffs and affordability issues for order book malaise, especially in terms of exports.

Hence, we will be awaiting producer price data alongside factory orders and consumer confidence for the US to gain further insights into economic growth and inflation trajectories. Likewise in Europe, fourth quarter GDP data for Germany and France are accompanied by preliminary February CPI inflation readings for France, Germany and Spain.

Consumer confidence statistics for Europe will also help shed light on whether lower interest rates in the UK and eurozone are benefitting households.

In APAC, industrial production data out of Japan and CPI inflation for Australia will be important to assess for policy implications. The Bank of Japan is poised to tighten policy further in the coming months after raising interest rates to a 30-year high back in December, as is the Reserve Bank of Australia, which hiked rates for the first time since 2023 in February and warned of more hikes to come if inflation proved worrying in the first quarter.

Fourth quarter GDP data are also released for India, which has been a sustained strong performer in the PMI rankings globally, albeit losing a little momentum at the tail end of 2025, as well as Singapore and Hong Kong SAR. Interest rate decisions are meanwhile due for Thailand and South Korea.

Read more about recent global PMI trends here.

Key diary events

Monday 23 Feb

Americas
- Mexico GDP (Q4, final)
- US Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Jan)
- US Factory Orders (Dec)
- US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (Feb)

EMEA
- Germany Ifo Business Climate (Feb)
- Italy Inflation (Jan, final)

APAC
China (Mainland), Japan Market Holiday
- New Zealand Retail Sales (Q4)
- Singapore Inflation (Jan)

Tuesday 24 Feb

Americas
- US ADP Weekly Employment Change
- US S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price (Dec)
- US Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Feb)
- US Wholesale Inventories (Dec)

EMEA
- France Business Confidence (Feb)

APAC
- South Korea Consumer Confidence (Feb)
- China (Mainland) Loan Prime Rate (Feb)

Wednesday 25 Feb

Americas
- Canada Manufacturing Sales (Jan, prelim)

EMEA
- Austria Manufacturing PMI* (Feb)
- Germany GfK Consumer Confidence (Mar)
- Germany GDP (Q4, final)
- Eurozone CPI (Jan, final)

APAC
- South Korea Business Confidence (Feb)
- Singapore GDP (Q4, final)
- Australia Inflation (Jan)
- Thailand Trade (Jan)
- Bank of Thailand Interest Rate Decision
- Hong Kong SAR Inflation (Jan)

Thursday 26 Feb

Americas
- Mexico Unemployment Rate (Jan)
- Canada Current Account (Q4)
- US Initial Jobless Claims

EMEA
- Türkiye Trade (Jan)
- Italy Business Confidence (Feb)
- Eurozone Economic Sentiment (Feb)
- Spain Business Confidence (Feb)

APAC
- New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence (Feb)
- South Korea BoK Interest Rate Decision
- Japan Housing Starts (Jan)
- Singapore Industrial Production (Jan)
- Hong Kong SAR GDP (Q4, final)

Friday 27 Feb

Americas
- Brazil Unemployment Rate (Jan)
- Mexico Balance of Trade (Jan)
- Canada GDP (Q4)
- US PPI (Jan)
- US Chicago PMI (Feb)

EMEA
- UK GfK Consumer Confidence (Feb)
- Sweden GDP (Q4, final)
- Türkiye GDP (Q4)
- UK Nationwide Housing Price (Feb)
- France Inflation (Feb, prelim)
- France GDP (Q4, final)
- Spain Inflation (Feb, prelim)
- Switzerland GDP (Q4)
- Germany Unemployment Rate (Feb)
- Germany Inflation (Feb, prelim)

APAC
Taiwan Market Holiday
- Japan Tokyo CPI (Feb)
- Japan Industrial Production (Jan, prelim)
- Philippines Trade (Jan)
- Thailand Industrial Production (Jan)
- Hong Kong SAR Trade (Jan)
- India GDP (Q4)

Saturday 28 Feb

APAC
- India Industrial Production (Jan)

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Purchasing Managers' Index™ (PMI^®) data are compiled by S&P Global for more than 40 economies worldwide. The monthly data are derived from surveys of senior executives at private sector companies, and are available only via subscription. The PMI dataset features a headline number, which indicates the overall health of an economy, and sub-indices, which provide insights into other key economic drivers such as GDP, inflation, exports, capacity utilization, employment and inventories. The PMI data are used by financial and corporate professionals to better understand where economies and markets are headed, and to uncover opportunities.

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