Monthly PMI Bulletin: September 2025

The following is an extract from S&P Global Market Intelligence's latest Monthly PMI Bulletin. For the full report, please click on the 'Download Full Report' link.

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Business confidence falls further despite accelerating global growth

The global economic expansion accelerated to the fastest pace in 14 months in August, as improved manufacturing production growth accompanied a further expansion of service sector activity. That said, uncertainty remained elevated, subduing both business confidence and job creation.

The J.P.Morgan Global PMI Composite Output Index - produced by S&P Global -posted 52.9 in August, up from 52.5 in July. This was the highest reading seen since June 2024 and represented an extension of the global economic expansion that commenced in February 2023. At its current level, the data was broadly consistent with the global economy expanding at an annualized rate of 3.0% in August, which is broadly in line with the average GDP growth rate of 3.1% seen in the decade prior to the pandemic. The latest upturn also marked the fourth successive month in which the pace of global economic growth has accelerated.

Greater convergence in conditions was observed in August, as global growth was supported by faster manufacturing output growth while services activity continued to rise at a solid pace. Developed and emerging markets alike saw the gap close between manufacturing and services in August.

While the broad-based improvement in growth presents a picture further into the second half of 2025, evidence from other PMI sub-indices suggested that things may not be as rosy as they appear in the headlines. Specifically, subdued business confidence reflected persistent worries over the negative impact of US tariffs, while uncertainty regarding the outlook further suppressed jobs growth. With the latest round of widespread tariffs implemented only partially through in August, additional last-minute front-loading may remain baked into August's figures. As such, we look forward to the September flash PMI release on September 23rd for insights into how economic conditions fared following a full month of higher tariffs.

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Purchasing Managers' Index™ (PMI^®) data are compiled by S&P Global for more than 40 economies worldwide. The monthly data are derived from surveys of senior executives at private sector companies, and are available only via subscription. The PMI dataset features a headline number, which indicates the overall health of an economy, and sub-indices, which provide insights into other key economic drivers such as GDP, inflation, exports, capacity utilization, employment and inventories. The PMI data are used by financial and corporate professionals to better understand where economies and markets are headed, and to uncover opportunities.

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