Monthly PMI Bulletin: June 2025

The following is an extract from S&P Global Market Intelligence's latest Monthly PMI Bulletin. For the full report, please click on the 'Download Full Report' link.

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Global output and confidence improve amid divergences

The global economic expansion accelerated in May as demand growth improved, though this was limited to the service sector. Subdued trade conditions meanwhile continued to dampen export performance, but overall confidence improved from April's low.

The J.P.Morgan Global PMI Composite Output Index - produced by S&P Global -posted 51.2 in May, up from 50.8 in April. The latest print signalled an extension of the global economic expansion that commenced in February 2023. The rate of growth was modest despite improving from April's 17-month low. At its current level, the index is broadly consistent with the global economy expanding at an annualized rate of 2.0% in May, which is below an average GDP growth rate of 3.1% in the decade prior to the pandemic.

May's PMI data revealed that the global economic expansion was limited to the service sector, which grew at an accelerated rate. In contrast, manufacturing production fell at the sharpest pace in eight months. Disruptions from US policy acted as the key dampener on manufacturing performance, with emerging markets notably affected to a greater degree, though growth in many economies, notably in the developed world, was in part buoyed by shipments front-running tariffs, which resulted in an unprecedented inventory accumulation in the US. Overall emerging markets output underperformed developed economies for the first time so far this year.

The good news was that confidence improved in May from a level in April that was comparable to some of the pandemic lows. However, price pressures also heightened, albeit with variations by countries - with higher US and Canadian charges contrasting with softer inflation elsewhere - which could be consequential for central bank policy decisions around the world. As such, we will look to the upcoming flash PMI release on June 23rd for further insights into how economic conditions have evolved as firms position ahead of looming tariffs.

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Purchasing Managers' Index™ (PMI^®) data are compiled by S&P Global for more than 40 economies worldwide. The monthly data are derived from surveys of senior executives at private sector companies, and are available only via subscription. The PMI dataset features a headline number, which indicates the overall health of an economy, and sub-indices, which provide insights into other key economic drivers such as GDP, inflation, exports, capacity utilization, employment and inventories. The PMI data are used by financial and corporate professionals to better understand where economies and markets are headed, and to uncover opportunities.

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This article was published by S&P Global Market Intelligence and not by S&P Global Ratings, which is a separately managed division of S&P Global.