Monthly PMI Bulletin: July 2025

The following is an extract from S&P Global Market Intelligence's latest Monthly PMI Bulletin. For the full report, please click on the 'Download Full Report' link.

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Global growth accelerates on further stock building efforts while confidence wanes

The global economic expansion accelerated in June, supported by a renewed rise in manufacturing production. That said, business confidence waned while price pressures softened at the end of the second quarter.

The J.P.Morgan Global PMI Composite Output Index - produced by S&P Global -posted 51.7 in June, up from 51.2 in May. The latest data signalled an extension of the global economic expansion that commenced in February 2023. Moreover, the rate of expansion was the fastest in three months. Despite the improvement in growth pace, that data was merely at a level that was broadly consistent with the global economy expanding at an annualized rate of 2.3% in June, which was below an average GDP growth rate of 3.1% in the decade prior to the pandemic.

June's PMI data revealed that the global economic expansion was supported by a renewed rise in manufacturing production, while services activity growth decelerated from May. The rate at which manufacturing output expanded was the quickest since February. While the improvement in manufacturing sector conditions represented a positive development, one would find persistent signs of stock building in the US contributing to concerns of a hangover going into the second half of 2025. As it is, confidence levels across the globe remained below-average across both the manufacturing and service sectors in June.

This divergence in conditions between the US and the rest of world was also prevalent for prices, with tariffs driving US manufacturing output prices higher while the hike in charges remained muted outside of which. Given the latest updates regarding US trade policy in early July, the upcoming flash PMI release on July 24th will be closely watched for further insights into how economic conditions have changed in reaction to the announcements.

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Purchasing Managers' Index™ (PMI^®) data are compiled by S&P Global for more than 40 economies worldwide. The monthly data are derived from surveys of senior executives at private sector companies, and are available only via subscription. The PMI dataset features a headline number, which indicates the overall health of an economy, and sub-indices, which provide insights into other key economic drivers such as GDP, inflation, exports, capacity utilization, employment and inventories. The PMI data are used by financial and corporate professionals to better understand where economies and markets are headed, and to uncover opportunities.

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