Monthly PMI Bulletin: January 2026

he following is an extract from S&P Global Market Intelligence's latest Monthly PMI Bulletin. For the full report, please click on the 'Download Full Report' link.

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Global economic growth slows amid subdued confidence

The global economic expansion slowed in the closing month of 2025. This was amid subdued confidence and stalled employment, though price pressures were muted, paving the way for further policy support in the new year.

The J.P.Morgan Global PMI Composite Output Index - produced by S&P Global - posted 52.0 in December, down from 52.7 in November. This is the lowest reading for six months, falling further below the long-run average. The December PMI is broadly consistent with global GDP growing at an annualized rate of 2.4%, which is lower than the average GDP growth rate of 3.1% observed in the decade prior to the pandemic.

While growth remained broad-based at the end of 2025, the rates of expansion softened across both manufacturing and services.

Manufacturing production rose at the slowest pace in five months amid a stagnation of new orders. This was while US manufacturers reported a weak end to 2025, attributed to the first fall in goods new orders in a year. Globally, purchasing activity and inventory levels among good producers also declined further at the end of the year, reflecting subdued conditions and diminished expectations for demand in the coming months. Meanwhile, both services activity and new business increased at the slowest rates in six months.

The reduction in the pace of global demand growth contributed to a stagnation in employment following two consecutive months of job creation. Business confidence among firms was also subdued below the long-run average. Despite the amalgamation of worrying trends, muted price pressures at the end of 2025 continue to fuel expectations for interest rate cuts going into the new year, which has been one of the key supportive factors for positive market expectations at the start of 2026.

Purchasing Managers' Index™ (PMI^®) data are compiled by S&P Global for more than 40 economies worldwide. The monthly data are derived from surveys of senior executives at private sector companies, and are available only via subscription. The PMI dataset features a headline number, which indicates the overall health of an economy, and sub-indices, which provide insights into other key economic drivers such as GDP, inflation, exports, capacity utilization, employment and inventories. The PMI data are used by financial and corporate professionals to better understand where economies and markets are headed, and to uncover opportunities.

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This article was published by S&P Global Market Intelligence and not by S&P Global Ratings, which is a separately managed division of S&P Global.