Monthly PMI Bulletin: April 2025

The following is an extract from S&P Global Market Intelligence's latest Monthly PMI Bulletin. For the full report, please click on the 'Download Full Report' link.

Download full report

Global business confidence falls amid tariff uncertainty

Although the global economic expansion regained some momentum in March amid improvements in the service sector, business optimism fell and cost pressures intensified ahead of additional tariff announcements in April.

The J.P.Morgan Global PMI Composite Output Index - produced by S&P Global -posted 52.1 in March, down from 51.5 in February. The latest print signalled an extension of the global economic expansion that commenced in February 2023, but despite the March improvement the growth seen so far this year has been subdued compared to that seen in 2024. At its current level, the index is broadly consistent with the global economy expanding at an annualized rate of 2.3% in the first quarter. This falls short of the 3.0% growth seen in the last quarter of 2024.

Improvements in the service sector underpinned March's quicker rise in global output. The rate of services activity growth was the strongest in three months while manufacturing production expansion decelerated as pre-tariff activity eased. Similarly for new orders, demand strengthened for services but a slower increase in goods new orders was observed. By region, both developed and emerging markets saw growth accelerate, with the latter leading growth for a third straight month.

Ahead of the series of tariff updates at the start of April, worldwide business confidence fell to the lowest level in six months. Concerns over the impact of potential tariffs was central to the dampening of sentiment. This included the impact on supply chains and prices, as we saw US manufacturers face the fastest rise in input costs worldwide on the back of newly implemented tariffs. Input price changes will be among the key trends to monitor with the upcoming flash PMI releases on April 23rd.

Purchasing Managers' Index™ (PMI^®) data are compiled by S&P Global for more than 40 economies worldwide. The monthly data are derived from surveys of senior executives at private sector companies, and are available only via subscription. The PMI dataset features a headline number, which indicates the overall health of an economy, and sub-indices, which provide insights into other key economic drivers such as GDP, inflation, exports, capacity utilization, employment and inventories. The PMI data are used by financial and corporate professionals to better understand where economies and markets are headed, and to uncover opportunities.

Learn more about PMI data

Request a demo

This article was published by S&P Global Market Intelligence and not by S&P Global Ratings, which is a separately managed division of S&P Global.