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CREDIT COMMENTARY Apr 16, 2013

US earnings bolster sentiment

Robust earnings in the US helped markets consolidate following the tragic bombings in Boston and the ongoing sell-off in commodities.

Goldman Sachs was the latest bank to beat earnings expectations after it reported a 7% increase in net income. Earnings per share of $4.29 easily surpassed the consensus estimate of $3.90, with revenues also exceeding expectations.

Operating costs were flat, and the 12.4% return on equity was the highest since Q3 2010. Trading revenues were down from last year, but increased underwriting feeds and decent performances from other parts of the business more than made up for the decline.

Goldman's CDS tightened 5bps to 128bps following the results, more or less where it started the week. The company has traded in a relatively tight range since the beginning of the year, allowing its rival Morgan Stanley to close the spread differential.

However, Goldman's stock price has outperformed most of its competitors and Morgan Stanley is scheduled to post its earnings on Thursday.

Coca-Cola and Blackrock were among the other firms to report expectation beating results today, helping the Markit iTraxx Europe to stay firm around its opening level of 111.5bps. Commodity names continued to outperform following lacklustre Chinese growth figures and a precipitous fall in the price of gold.

The precious metal has been a favourite investment of fiat money critics, many of whom fear that hyperinflation is an inevitable consequence of central bank largesse. But the actions of the Fed and Bank of England haven't turned the US and UK into Zimbabwe - inflation remains contained.

Gold will continue to be seen as an important store of value, but the scale of the fall in the last two days - the largest since 1983 - must cause the gold bulls serious concern.

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