Week Ahead Economic Preview: Week of 8 February 2021

The following is an extract from IHS Markit's latest Week Ahead Economic Preview. For the full report, please click on the 'Download Full Report' link.

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• Consumer inflation numbers for the US, China and Germany
• Trade updates for China, Japan and Germany
• UK fourth quarter GDP, eurozone production

The week ahead sees updates to consumer price inflation for the US, China and Germany, which will be eagerly assessed for any signs of rising industrial prices feeding through to households. Trade data from China, Japan and Germany will also be eyed for evidence of supply chain bottlenecks subduing trade flows. Other notable data releases include UK GDP and eurozone industrial production. Central bank policy meetings are meanwhile scheduled in Sweden, the Philippines, Mexico and Russia, plus there's a Mansion House speech from Bank of England Governor Bailey which will be scrutinised in particular for the Bank's appetite for negative interest rates.

For the US, the economic release calendar is topped by inflation data, which follow survey data pointing to cost pressures reaching the highest for over a decade amid severe supply chain disruptions. Jobless claims, job openings and consumer confidence data will also be monitored for updates to the health of the labour market and households, while budget announcements for 2021 will steer spending guidance on the Biden administration's first year.

In Europe, industrial production and trade data take centre stage in the eurozone, with Germany, Italy and France reporting December production numbers ahead of full regional estimates on Friday, with the former also releasing eagerly-awaited export statistics. The UK meanwhile releases its first estimate of fourth quarter GDP. The Bank of England now expects a decline to have been narrowly avoided, but prospects are looking worse for the first quarter.

Asia Pacific data releases in the week ahead likewise include some important trade numbers, notably out of China and Japan. Both also issue producer price data plus consumer inflation. A key focus will be on the extent to which trade flows are being affected by the pandemic and associated supply constraints. Similarly, consumer price inflation data will be eyed for insights into the extent to which higher industrial prices are feeding though to consumers.

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PMI commentary: Chris Williamson

Europe commentary: Ken Wattret

APAC commentary: Rajiv Biswas

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