Week Ahead Economic Preview: Week of 26 October 2020

The following is an extract from IHS Markit's latest Week Ahead Economic Preview. For the full report, please click on the 'Download Full Report' link.

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• Third quarter GDP updates include estimates for the US and Eurozone
• Monetary policy meetings in the eurozone, Japan, Canada and Brazil
• US earnings season and China's five-year plan

The week sees a full economic calendar including third quarter GDP estimates for the US, Eurozone, Hong Kong SAR, Taiwan and South Korea. Higher frequency data updates include US durable goods orders, housing market and trade, as well as Eurozone inflation and unemployment, plus a host of industrial production and retail sales updates across Asia.

Central bank watchers will meanwhile be kept busy with policy meetings scheduled for the euro area, Japan, Canada and Brazil.

In addition, the ever-closer US presidential election, the Brexit deadline of 31st October, the earnings season - with almost a thousand firms reporting - and China's Communist Party's Fifth Plenum mean there's unlikely to be a dull moment.

In the US, political risk remains high on the agenda ahead of 3rd November election day, but the week will also allow markets to take stock of third quarter trends both in terms of GDP and some 948 corporate earnings releases. IHS Markit expects GDP to have grown at an annualised rate of around 33%, but for the fourth quarter to see growth slacken sharply, albeit remain robust by historical standards with flash PMI numbers continuing to improve in October.

Similarly, GDP data for the Eurozone, Germany, France, Italy and Spain will inevitably show strong rebounds after the collapse seen in the second quarter, but the focus will likely rest on how the ECB's Governing Council assesses downside risks to the outlook. Flash PMI survey data showed the region falling back into contraction amid rising COVID infection rates.

In Asia, China maps out its next five-year plan and long-term economic strategy. South Korea and Taiwan are meanwhile expected to have seen GDP expand at quarterly rates of 10.5% and 6.8% respectively in the third quarter, but the Hong Kong SAR economy is expected to contract at a 7% rate. The Bank of Japan is meanwhile expected to downgrade its growth forecasts at its upcoming policy meeting. Japan's PMI data remained in contraction territory in October. China's NBS PMI data close off the month.

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PMI commentary: Chris Williamson

Europe commentary: Ken Wattret

APAC commentary: Rajiv Biswas and Bernard Aw

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Purchasing Managers' Index™ (PMI™) data are compiled by IHS Markit for more than 40 economies worldwide. The monthly data are derived from surveys of senior executives at private sector companies, and are available only via subscription. The PMI dataset features a headline number, which indicates the overall health of an economy, and sub-indices, which provide insights into other key economic drivers such as GDP, inflation, exports, capacity utilization, employment and inventories. The PMI data are used by financial and corporate professionals to better understand where economies and markets are headed, and to uncover opportunities.

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