Week Ahead Economic Preview: Week of 10 November 2025

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Global business outlook plus European GDP updates

Global business outlook data are accompanied in the coming week by GDP data for the UK and eurozone, plus a detailed UK labour market update.

After October PMI surveys showed the global economy sustaining robust growth at the start of the fourth quarter, we will get more forward-looking sentiment data from the S&P Global Business Outlook survey, which is the largest worldwide poll of business expectations for the year ahead. The Outlook survey includes views not just on anticipated output trends but also on hiring, pricing and capex intentions across all major developed and emerging economies.

Updated perspectives on how investors perceive the current market climate will meanwhile be provided via the Investment Manager Index, the October edition of which showed reviving risk appetite following the FOMC's rate cut.

A lack of official US data as a result of the government shutdown means we'll get few other clues as to whether the FOMC will cut rates again when it meets in December, but the coming week does see an interesting docket of UK economic releases. The Bank of England held its policy rate steady at its November meeting, but only after a heavily split five-to-four decision among the MPC. Hence upcoming labour market data, both from the Office for National Statistics and the REC/KPMG recruitment industry survey, will be gleaned for clues as to whether the recent downturn in UK employment could be coming to an end. The data follow the PMI, where the employment index showed a near-stabilisation of payroll numbers after past heavy declines.

The UK also sees GDP data for the third quarter, including monthly updates for components such as manufacturing, services and construction for September. Note that the PMI data saw the UK economy hit by the JLR shutdown in September, but more recent data have brought welcome signs of sustained growth.

The eurozone also sees a revised estimate of third quarter GDP, initially thought to have risen by 0.2%, with an update to industrial production for September. Recent PMI data have signalled an encouraging, though nascent, revival of eurozone manufacturing.

In Asia, the key releases to watch are industrial production, retail sales and investment for mainland China, which will set the initial scene for fourth quarter GDP growth. GDP rose at a 4.8% pace in the third quarter, which was the weakest for a year.

Strong start to fourth quarter for global economy

A strong start to the fourth quarter was signalled for the global economy by S&P Global Market Intelligence's PMI surveys. The J.P. Morgan Global Composite PMI Output Index, covering manufacturing and services in over 40 economies, rose from 52.5 in September to 52.9 in October - the joint-highest over the past 17 months.

Historical comparisons indicate that the latest PMI is consistent with the global GDP growing at an annualized rate of 3.0%. This follows a robust third quarter, for which the PMI signalled a 2.8% pace of growth, and compares with an average GDP growth rate of 3.1% seen in the decade prior to the pandemic.

The US continued to lead the major developed economies in terms of output growth, but growth also picked up in the eurozone, to the fastest since May 2023, as well as in the UK and Japan. Canada returned to growth for the first time since November 2024. India meanwhile continued to lead the emerging markets, and mainland China continued to expand, though at a reduced rate.

Key diary events

Monday 10 Nov

EMEA
- Norway Inflation (Oct)
- Türkiye Industrial Production (Sep)

APAC
- Japan BoJ Summary of Opinions (Oct)

Tuesday 11 Nov

S&P Global Investment Manager Index* (Nov)

Americas
Canada Market Holiday
- Brazil Inflation (Oct)
- Mexico Industrial Production (Sep)
- ADP Weekly Employment Change

EMEA
- UK Labour Market Report (Sep)
- Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment (Nov)
- UK Regional Growth Tracker* (Oct)

APAC
- Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Change (Nov)
- Australia NAB Business Confidence (Oct)
- China (Mainland) New Yuan Loans, M2, Loan Growth (Oct)

Wednesday 12 Nov

Global Business Outlook* (Oct)

Global GEP Supply Chain Volatility Index* (Oct)

Americas
- Canada Building Permits (Sep)

EMEA
- Germany Inflation (Oct, final)
- Italy Industrial Production (Sep)

APAC
- South Korea Unemployment Rate (Oct)
- Australia Home Loans (Q3)
- Japan Machine Tool Orders (Oct)
- India Inflation (Oct)

Thursday 13 Nov

Americas
- Brazil Retail Sales (Sep)
- US Inflation (Oct)
- US Initial Jobless Claims

EMEA
- Sweden Inflation (Oct, final)
- UK GDP (Q3, prelim)
- United Kingdom monthly GDP, incl. Manufacturing, Services and Construction Output (Sep)
- Eurozone Industrial Production (Sep)

APAC
- Japan PPI (Oct)
- Australia Employment Change (Oct)

Friday 14 Nov

Americas
- US Monthly Budget Statement (Oct)
- Canada Manufacturing Sales (Sep, final)
- US PPI (Oct)
- US Retail Sales (Oct)
- US Business Inventories (Sep)

EMEA
- Germany Wholesale Prices (Oct)
- Eurozone Balance of Trade (Sep)
- Eurozone Employment Change (Q3, prelim)
- Eurozone GDP (Q3, 2nd est.)
- UK KPMG/REC Report on Jobs* (Oct)

APAC
- China (Mainland) House Price Index (Oct)
- China (Mainland) Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Fixed Asset Investment (Oct)
- China (Mainland) Unemployment Rate (Oct)
- India Trade (Oct)

Saturday 15 Nov

Americas
- Canada Inflation (Oct)

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Purchasing Managers' Index™ (PMI^®) data are compiled by S&P Global for more than 40 economies worldwide. The monthly data are derived from surveys of senior executives at private sector companies, and are available only via subscription. The PMI dataset features a headline number, which indicates the overall health of an economy, and sub-indices, which provide insights into other key economic drivers such as GDP, inflation, exports, capacity utilization, employment and inventories. The PMI data are used by financial and corporate professionals to better understand where economies and markets are headed, and to uncover opportunities.

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This article was published by S&P Global Market Intelligence and not by S&P Global Ratings, which is a separately managed division of S&P Global.