Monthly PMI Bulletin: May 2025

The following is an extract from S&P Global Market Intelligence's latest Monthly PMI Bulletin. For the full report, please click on the 'Download Full Report' link.

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Global growth slows as exports and confidence decline in April

Although an expansion of global output was sustained in April, exports and optimism declined while employment stalled following the announcement of additional US tariffs. This was while prices charged for goods and services rose at an accelerated rate.

The J.P.Morgan Global PMI Composite Output Index- produced by S&P Global -posted 50.8 in April, down from 52.0 in March. The latest print signalled an extension of the global economic expansion that commenced in February 2023, though at the softest pace in nearly one-and-a-half years. At its current level, the index is broadly consistent with the global economy expanding at an annualized rate of less than 2.0% at the start of the second quarter of the year.

April's PMI data revealed that the global economic expansion remained broad-based at the start of the second quarter of the year. That said, the modest rise in manufacturing production seen during the month was part driven by the front-loading of goods orders ahead of higher tariffs, while services activity growth decelerated to the slowest since November 2023, altogether reflecting the impact of recent changes in trade policies according to surveyed companies. By region, emerging markets became the sole source of growth as developed markets output barely expanded in the latest survey period.

Although it remains early days to assess the full impact of evolving trade policies, PMI sub-indices have already started to outline the negative impact on exports, with both manufacturing and service sectors posting lower exports globally in April. Business optimism meanwhile slumped to its lowest since the pandemic, contributing to the stalling of employment growth. As such, we will look to the upcoming flash PMI release on May 22nd for further insights into how economic conditions have evolved as firms adapt to a new climate for trade.

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Purchasing Managers' Index™ (PMI^®) data are compiled by S&P Global for more than 40 economies worldwide. The monthly data are derived from surveys of senior executives at private sector companies, and are available only via subscription. The PMI dataset features a headline number, which indicates the overall health of an economy, and sub-indices, which provide insights into other key economic drivers such as GDP, inflation, exports, capacity utilization, employment and inventories. The PMI data are used by financial and corporate professionals to better understand where economies and markets are headed, and to uncover opportunities.

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