Global trade contraction accelerates at the end of 2024 amid falling goods export orders

The worldwide Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) surveys compiled by S&P Global Market Intelligence indicated that the contraction of global trade deepened at the end of 2024. This was attributable mainly to softening goods trade, though the exchange of services also came close to stalling in the closing month of the year.

The seasonally adjusted Global PMI New Export Orders Index, sponsored by JPMorgan and compiled by S&P Global, fell to 48.7 in December from 49.2 in November. Posting below the 50.0 neutral mark for a seventh successive month, the latest reading signalled that trade conditions deteriorated again. Though modest, the rate of decline was the second-sharpest in 2024, ranked just behind September.

Goods trade contraction deepens while services export business growth softens

Manufacturing new export orders continued to fall at the end of 2024. Moreover, the pace at which manufacturing export orders fell accelerated slightly to the quickest in three months. While the contraction in goods export orders had eased in November, with improvements observed across some regions as global manufacturers front-loaded ahead of potential tariffs, that effect faded into the end of 2024.

As observed from the seasonally adjusted global PMI Quantity of Input Purchases Index, manufacturers worldwide once again lowered the amount of inputs purchased in December after raising their buying activity for the first time in five months during November. This renewed drop in purchasing was largely underpinned by a broader manufacturing sector malaise, as goods new orders broadly shrank in December amidst the lowering of demand in view of heightened uncertainties in the new year. The level of business confidence declined globally to a three-month low in December, falling further below the long-run average as concerns rose around the potential impact of US tariffs on global goods production. Comments from the manufacturing panel citing 'uncertainty' globally had also risen further in December to more than three times the long-run average, the highest since May 2023.

The latest fall in manufacturing export orders continued to correspond to global trade volumes falling approximately 2% in year-on-year terms at the end of 2024.

Meanwhile services export business continued to expand globally in December, but saw the pace of expansion decelerate to the joint-lowest in 2024. Sector PMI data revealed that while services exports growth was sustained for consumer services, including tourism and recreation, the exchange of cross-border services declined for real estate, banking, and also the manufacturing-associated industrial services sectors, thereby outlining the contagion effect of goods trade jitters upon services.

Overall, the sectors seeing the fastest growth in export business were 'other' (non-bank) financials, insurance and tourism & recreation. The sector reporting the sharpest downturn was also a service sector in December, namely real estate, but was closely followed by manufacturing sectors such as construction materials and chemicals.

Downturn in export orders led by developed economies

While the reduction in export orders was concentrated among developed economies earlier in the fourth quarter, December saw both emerging and developed markets receiving lower new orders from abroad. In line with the abovementioned fading of front-loaded purchases ahead of potential US tariffs, emerging markets saw export orders decline in December after rising at the quickest pace in six months during November. The pace at which export orders fell among emerging markets was marginal, however, and was limited to the manufacturing sector.

Meanwhile developed markets export orders declined for the thirty-first month in a row in December. The pace of reduction remained similar to the trend seen through the second half of 2024. As with the emerging markets, developed market export orders mainly fell in the manufacturing sector while services export orders rose fractionally.

India leads goods exports growth for second successive month

Three of the top ten trading economies recorded higher goods export in December, down from four in November, as mainland China's goods export orders declined after rising at the fastest pace in seven months in November. India led with the fastest expansion of goods export orders at the end of 2024, the rate of growth accelerating to a five-month high amid reports of greater ease in securing orders from across the globe. This was despite the wider India manufacturing sector posting the weakest growth rate of 2024. Russia and South Korea followed, albeit with the rates of manufacturing export orders growth slowing from November in both cases, the latter near-stalling at the end of the year.

On the other hand, the EU continued to post the sharpest reduction in manufacturing export orders among the top ten trading economies despite the rate of contraction easing to a four-month low. This extended the period of contraction close to three years for the EU.

The UK, US and Japan followed next in terms of the severity of export declines, altogether contributing to the more severe downturn among developed markets. While the UK and Japan experienced quicker reductions in manufacturing export orders, the US saw the rate of reduction ease since November.

Access the full press release here.

Jingyi Pan, Economics Associate Director, S&P Global Market Intelligence

jingyi.pan@spglobal.com

© 2025, S&P Global. All rights reserved. Reproduction in whole or in part without permission is prohibited.

Purchasing Managers' Index™ (PMI^®) data are compiled by S&P Global for more than 40 economies worldwide. The monthly data are derived from surveys of senior executives at private sector companies, and are available only via subscription. The PMI dataset features a headline number, which indicates the overall health of an economy, and sub-indices, which provide insights into other key economic drivers such as GDP, inflation, exports, capacity utilization, employment and inventories. The PMI data are used by financial and corporate professionals to better understand where economies and markets are headed, and to uncover opportunities.

Learn more about PMI data

Request a demo

This article was published by S&P Global Market Intelligence and not by S&P Global Ratings, which is a separately managed division of S&P Global.