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ECONOMICS COMMENTARY Mar 05, 2013

Strength of first quarter growth under scrutiny as Global PMI hits four-month low

Global economic growth slowed to a four-month low in February, according to the JPMorgan Global PMI, a survey-based leading indicator of worldwide business activity produced by Markit. The index remains elevated compared to the lows seen late last year, suggesting that global GDP growth is still likely to have picked up in the first quarter (the annual rate of growth of worldwide GDP slowed to an estimated three-year low of 1.3% in the final quarter of 2012), but the drop in the PMI from 53.2 in January to 53.0 in February raises question marks over growth momentum and the sustainability of the improvement moving into the second quarter.

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