Global security unsettled

A number of unresolved conflicts and competitions are likely to present sources of persistent risk in the year ahead, filtering into the global economic outlook. Russia’s regional ambitions represented a longstanding, open test.

The invasion of Ukraine has transformed the near-term security picture for Europe on multiple fronts – as a ground conflict, across energy markets, and through European elections in 2023. Despite calls for diplomacy to start 2023, the underlying drivers of the conflict are unlikely to be resolved in the year ahead. This will leave key issues around Western sanctions easing, Russian reintegration prospects, European energy security, and the Ukrainian reconstruction pace unanswered.