Week Ahead Economic Preview: Week of 21 October 2019

• Flash PMI surveys for the US, Eurozone, Japan and Australia
• Draghi's final ECB meeting
• Special report on how UK industry fears a trade hit from post-Brexit regulatory change
• Special report on the challenges facing Indonesian President Jokowi

The week ahead includes a raft of flash PMI surveys to provide an early indication of economic trends at the start of the fourth quarter. Policy action comes from the ECB and central banks of Norway, Sweden, Russia, Hungary and Indonesia, while other key releases include US durable goods orders and home sales, eurozone consumer confidence and the German Ifo survey. In Asia the week sees key trade numbers out of Japan, Taiwan and Hong Kong SAR, while South Korea updates its GDP. Brexit and US trade war developments once again form the backdrop.

Flash PMI surveys for the US, Eurozone. Japan and Australia will be eagerly awaited after the September data showed the pace of global economic growth slipping to the joint-lowest for three years. The details of the surveys added to growing concerns that the trade war impact is spreading beyond manufacturing, notably in both the US and Eurozone. The PMI for the former recorded the worst order book growth since 2009, while the eurozone's September PMI indicated stagnation, rounding off the worst quarter since 2013. Japan's PMI will meanwhile give the first insight into how the economy has fared after the sales tax hike seen earlier this month.

The next ECB rate setting meeting is notable in being Mario Draghi's last, with Christine Lagarde set to replace him as president of the Governing Council on 1st November. The meeting comes amid a growing rift among policymakers over the renewed stimulus sanctioned at the September meeting. We are expecting further dovish comments from Draghi as he hands over the reins, given the recent weak PMI and benign inflation numbers, staunchly defending the recent stimulus measures.

Our special reports this week look at how concerns have risen about a potential hit to trade from post-Brexit regulatory change and the challenges that lay ahead for Indonesian president Jokowi's second term of office.

Download the report for the full content which includes:

• Global overview
• Key diary events
• US week ahead
• Europe week ahead
• Asia Pacific week ahead

Special report

• UK industry fears trade hit from post-Brexit regulatory change
• Indonesia: Challenges ahead for President Jokowi's second term of office

Contact us

• PMI commentary: Chris Williamson
• Europe commentary: Ken Wattret
• APAC commentary: Rajiv Biswas and Bernard Aw

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Purchasing Managers' Index™ (PMI™) data are compiled by IHS Markit for more than 40 economies worldwide. The monthly data are derived from surveys of senior executives at private sector companies, and are available only via subscription. The PMI dataset features a headline number, which indicates the overall health of an economy, and sub-indices, which provide insights into other key economic drivers such as GDP, inflation, exports, capacity utilization, employment and inventories. The PMI data are used by financial and corporate professionals to better understand where economies and markets are headed, and to uncover opportunities.

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