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Monthly GDP Index from Macroeconomic Advisers by IHS Markit for April
Ben Herzon
US Economist, Insights and Analysis, S&P Global Market Intelligence
Kathleen Navin
Economics Executive Director, US Macroeconomics, S&P Global Market Intelligence
Monthly GDP rose 0.3% in April following increases of similar
magnitudes over the prior two months. The April increase was
roughly accounted for by a jump in nonfarm inventory investment;
domestic final sales and net exports were little changed in April.
Within domestic final sales, increases in PCE and the portion of
monthly GDP not covered by the monthly source data were essentially
offset by a decline in nonresidential fixed investment. The level
of GDP in April was 2.8% above the first-quarter average at an
annual rate. Implicit in our latest forecast of 3.6% GDP growth in
the second quarter are increases in Monthly GDP in May and June
that average 0.2% per month.
Macroeconomic Advisers by IHS Markit's index of Monthly GDP
(MGDP) is a monthly indicator of real aggregate output that is
conceptually consistent with real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in
the National Income and Product Accounts. The Monthly GDP Index is
consistent with the NIPAs for two reasons: first, MGDP is
calculated using much of the same underlying monthly source data
that is used in the calculation of GDP. Second, the method of
aggregation to arrive at MGDP is similar to that for official GDP.
Growth of MGDP at the monthly frequency is determined primarily by
movements in the underlying monthly source data, and growth of MGDP
at the quarterly frequency is nearly identical to growth of real
GDP.
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