Argentina: On the ground country risk assessment

In the first of a series of from-the-field country risk briefings, Carla Selman, Senior Research Analyst, shares her take on the country's political and economic trajectory, the overall sentiment following the recent IMF rescue, and the likelihood of civil unrest in the months ahead. In this 30 minutes session we cover a number of key areas:

• Overall how deep is the feeling of pubic disappointment in Argentina: President Macri is facing his first major challenge, with markets questioning his economic model but what are citizens saying?
• Would they still vote for him in next year's election if he runs? If not, who might replace him?
• If Macri continues to struggle will the opposition be able to capitalize? Who are the potential opposition candidates for the 2019 elections?
• What are the implications of the unpopular deal with IMF? Will there be political protests and unrest? If so, will that force policy change, as in Brazil, with transport sector strikes forcing the government to keep subsidies?
• Argentina is currently the worst performing market among global Emerging Markets in 2018. Do people in Argentina see it as likely to return to the markets soon - or going to the opposite extreme, could another default become an active concern?

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IHS Markit Speakers:

Brian Lawson
Senior Economic and Financial Consultant, IHS Markit

Carla Selman
Senior Research Analyst, IHS Markit

Posted 27 August 2018 by Brian Lawson, Senior Economic and Financial Consultant, Country Risk, S&P Global Market Intelligence and

Carla Selman, Principal Research Analyst, Country Risk, S&P Global Market Intelligence