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ECONOMICS COMMENTARY May 13, 2013

US retail sales rise in April, but upturn fails to revive weak underlying trend

The US Fed will be reassured by better than expected sales growth in April, but will be cautious about reading too much into one month's data. Instead, an ongoing weakening in the trend rate of sales growth will most likely encourage policymakers to refrain from easing back on policy stimulus any time soon and await more data. The sales upturn will nonetheless ensure talk of scaling back the stimulus remains firmly on the table.

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